NFL wild card overreactions: Josh Allen is the biggest X factor of playoffs

Wild Card Weekend really highlighted the wildness of the first round of the NFL playoffs. Saturday’s doubleheader saw both games go down to the wire, ending with the Chicago Bears coming back from a double-digit deficit to defeat the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams held off a road upset at the hands of the Carolina Panthers in the previous window.

Before we could even catch our breath, Sunday’s action took over and continued to raise everyone’s collective blood pressure. The tripleheader began in Jacksonville, where Josh Allen was able to lead the Buffalo Bills to a road victory over the Jaguars, scoring a touchdown in the final minute. This gave the franchise its first road playoff victory since the 1992 AFC Championship. Then, San Francisco stormed into Philadelphia and beat the defending champion Eagles thanks to a 13-point fourth quarter. To conclude Sunday’s action, the Patriots’ defense threw the Chargers’ offense into a locker in a 16-3 victory at New England: Los Angeles’ three points scored and 207 total yards of offense were the franchise’s worst playoff run since 1992.

Is that dramatic enough for you? Well, we have even more on deck with Monday’s showdown between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

As the dust begins to settle on Wild Card Weekend, how do we make sense of all the madness that has just unfolded? Which scenarios are concrete and which are just simple overreactions? Below, we’ll analyze some of the most important takeaways from Day 2 of Wild Card Weekend and determine which storylines are legitimate and which are overblown.

To view our overreactions for the first day of Wild Card weekendincluding the potential fallout in Green Bay after its loss to Chicago.

Josh Allen is the biggest X-factor in the playoffs

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Reality

The reigning NFL MVP remains the great equalizer of these playoffs. For the most part, the Jaguars had Buffalo in their sights, and they felt like they were in a strong position to get the win and advance. So what happened? Josh Allen donned the Superman cape. Everything Buffalo needed down the stretch, Allen was able to provide, which included a game-changing QB on fourth-and-one to set up what would be the game-winning touchdown (another Allen rush).

In the fourth quarter, Allen led two touchdown drives while completing nine of 11 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown, while adding 21 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground. There aren’t many (if any) quarterbacks left in the playoffs capable of this type of heroics, which makes Buffalo dangerous even as a wild card team. The Bills have the best quarterback in the playoffs, and that might be enough to get them over the hump.

Jaguars’ loss proves they were fools’ gold

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Overreaction

The lights may have been a little too bright for the Jaguars during their playoff showdown with the Bills, especially when it comes to Trevor Lawrence. After a red-hot finish to the regular season (19 total touchdowns and one turnover in the final six games), the Jacksonville quarterback threw two interceptions in the playoff loss, including a season-ending turnover in the final seconds of the game as the Jaguars tried to drive down the field hoping to tie or take the lead late. Lawrence completed just 18 of 30 pass attempts (60%) for 207 yards, three touchdowns and those two picks.

Even though it wasn’t the most perfect outing for Lawrence and the Jags, that doesn’t mean what they accomplished in 2025 was hollow. You can make the argument that they simply hit an immovable object – Josh Allen. Jacksonville was a sleeper candidate for many to go deep in these playoffs, so seeing the Jaguars go one and done is a disappointing result. That said, it was an extremely successful season in Duval County. In his first year on the job, Liam Coen led the Jaguars to a 13-win season, which is tied for third for the most wins by a rookie coach in NFL history. Jacksonville was also only the third team in league history to win 13 games after a 13-loss season.

More importantly, Coen seemed to get the most out of Lawrence, and that’s a huge development, as he should only get better heading into his second season in the system. The regular season success is there, and now it’s time to work on the next step of development, which is translating that to the playoffs.

Injuries will keep 49ers from reaching the Super Bowl

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Overreaction

There is no denying that the San Francisco 49ers have been hit hard by injuries. They are one of the most injured teams in the entire league and have lost fundamental pieces throughout the year, including tight end George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury during Sunday’s playoff victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Here’s a quick look at the notable names they’ve missed this season.

When you look at this group of players, you would think that San Francisco’s cap should be lowered, right? Well, even though we think the next injury will be the final straw, the 49ers continue to rack up wins and have now advanced to the divisional round after beating the defending champions.

They’ve shown enough perseverance that it’s difficult to put a ceiling on what they can accomplish, especially when they have the best coaches the NFL has to offer. Kyle Shanahan masterfully pulled the strings of the offense, deploying a well-timed Jauan Jennings touchdown pass.

Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh put on a masterclass, shutting down the Eagles’ offense. With that kind of cerebral confidence, they shouldn’t be ruled out, even if they have their hand tied behind their back due to injury.

AJ Brown to be the subject of trade rumors this offseason

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Reality

Something has to give in the AJ Brown saga with the Philadelphia Eagles. It was the greatest hits album during Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, as the wideout went viral for all the wrong reasons. In the first half, Brown dropped a third-down pass from Jalen Hurts, which then sparked a sideline altercation with coach Nick Sirianni, and the two had to be separated.

As Sirianni brushed it off while speaking to Fox Sports reporter Erin Andrews, it’s the latest chapter in a long list of troubles for the general public. Later, as Philly tried to regain the lead, Brown also had a pretty bad pass on a pass he should have made. The Eagles were able to convert on the next play, but Brown didn’t exactly shine when looked at, and finished with just three catches for 25 yards on seven targets (tied for second on the team) in the loss.

Brown has been the subject of trade rumors in the past, and it’s fair to wonder if that will persist this offseason. Changes will need to be made to this Eagles offense as it is retooled for 2026, and that could include a shakeup in the receiver room with an exploration of a Brown trade.

Patriots’ pass rush rivals Denver Broncos’ for best in NFL

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Overreaction

New England hit Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 11 times and sacked him six times in their 16-3 victory Sunday night. How rare was this pass-rush performance? Out of 272 regular season games in 2025, only 12 of them (4.4%) involved defenses hitting and sacking the opposing quarterback as much as the Patriots did against Herbert in the wild card round.

However, that doesn’t mean their pass rush is now on par with the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Denver Broncos. Denver’s franchise record with 68 sacks was tied for the fifth-most in a season by any team, and it is the Broncos’ second straight season with more than 60 sacks as a team. The Patriots amassed just 35 sacks during the regular season, tied for seventh in the league with the Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys among other teams.

New England benefited greatly from facing the worst offensive line in football in the Chargers’ unit without Rashawn Slater and without Joe Alt. The difficulty level of the Patriots’ pass rush will increase exponentially against the Houston Texans (35.2% quarterback pressure rate allowed, 12th best in the NFL) or the Pittsburgh Steelers (25% quarterback pressure rate allowed, best in the NFL) in the Divisional Round.

Chargers risk ruining Justin Herbert’s career

Excessive reactions compared to reality: Reality

Thanks to the Chargers’ support along the offensive line and running back with Omarion Hampton (ankle) able to play just two plays Sunday, Los Angeles is starting to enter the danger zone of wasting Justin Herbert’s talents.

Herbert was pressured on 42.8% of his losses during the 2025 regular season, the highest rate in the NFL this season. The loss of both starting offensive tackles in Slater (torn patella tendon) and Alt (ankle) reduced his pass protection, but Herbert still prevailed to play like a top 10 QB this season in leading Los Angeles to 11 wins. There aren’t many quarterbacks who could have done the same thing in his offensive ecosystem.

Herbert is now 0-3 in the playoffs, despite throwing for the second-most passing yards over a player’s first six seasons in NFL history with 24,820. Only Hall of Famer Peyton Manning’s total of 24,885 passing yards over his first six seasons is greater than Herbert’s total.

His 24,820 passing yards also rank second in six seasons without a playoff victory in NFL history, behind Matthew Stafford’s 27,501 that he threw for from 2011 to 2016 with the Detroit Lions. Stafford finally waved the white flag and demanded a compromise from the Lions, and he won a Super Bowl in his first season in a new environment. The Chargers are getting closer and closer to Herbert’s Lions after another season was doomed by a lackluster supporting cast on the field and at the offensive coordinator position with Greg Roman calling the plays.