Nikola Jokić injury: Nuggets star’s absence changes MVP race, playoff picture, more

Nikola Jokić suffered a left knee hyperextension during the Nuggets’ loss in Miami on Monday. This is good news, relatively speaking. There was a legitimate fear of an ACL.

The bad news is that Jokić is expected to be out at least four weeks, and probably more, as that is just the re-evaluation date. That changes a lot — both for the Nuggets, who currently sit on the 10-loss West cut line for a top-four finish, and for what was shaping up to be a photo-finish MVP race.

SGA is now the undisputed MVP leader

Jokić hasn’t missed a game this season, but with the Nuggets scheduled to play 16 games over the next 28 days, he will finish with a maximum of 66 games played. The limit for MVP is 65 games played. This means that Jokić would have to return as quickly as possible and not miss a game the rest of the season to be eligible for the MVP award. This won’t happen.

This totally paves the way for Gilgeous-Alexander to win a second consecutive MVP (-450 to win, according to BetMGM), and it would significantly change his historical position. Going from one to two MVPs is a big step forward. Kobe Bryant never won a second. Neither does Shaq. Kevin Durant only has one.

In total, only 15 players in NBA history have won multiple MVPs, with 10 of them winning at least their second by the age of 27: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Jokić, Moses Malone, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tim Duncan and Bob Petit.

If that happens, Gilgeous-Alexander would become the 16th to win at least two and the 11th to do so at the age of 27. With two MVPs, he would enter the class of Curry, Duncan, Antetokounmpo and Petit and Steve Nash – with a long runway ahead of him and a team built to keep him in MVP position for years to come.

Can a dormant MVP emerge?

SGA is unlikely to stay healthy, but it’s worth mentioning the guys who are now elevated to the level where circumstances could force their way in and they have one less hurdle to clear with Jokić’s absence. Those guys would include Cade Cunningham (+4000), Jalen Brunson (+6600), and Jaylen Brown (+25000), who are currently leading the top three teams in the East and having absolutely incredible seasons.

Tyrese Maxey (+15000) does the same, but the Sixers certainly won’t win enough games to give him a real chance. In the West, Kevin Durant (+100,000) and Alperen Sengun (+100,000) would likely share Houston’s votes. Victor Wembanyama (+5000) has already missed 12 games, so he will likely end up being ineligible.

Luka Doncic (+375) is the West wild card. If the Lakers get hot and take Denver’s spot in the rankings as a top-three team, he might get some love if he puts up crazy numbers. Anthony Edwards (+20,000) is someone to watch for the same reasons if the Wolves, currently No. 6, make a huge run.

At the very least, all of these guys are now able to get more votes than before Jokić fell. But again, something unforeseen would have to happen to SGA and/or the Thunder for someone else to actually win.

Where does that leave the Nuggets?

That’s the big question. Denver is currently No. 3 in the West, but tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Rockets and No. 5 Lakers. Even though they have played, they are just three games above the play-in line in what is a run unlike any other in the Western Conference. If things go a little off the rails in the 16 games Jokić is expected to miss at a minimum, they could find themselves in an ugly fight for a top-six seed.

The good news is that the Nuggets are slightly better with Jokić off the court compared to the championship season, but let’s keep that in perspective. They still have a lot of trouble without him, because any team would be without the best player in the world.

*Numbers per glass cleaning

Beyond the numbers, the Nuggets have more players capable of increasing their offensive production this season. Jonas Valanciunas will slide into the starting center. Tim Hardaway Jr. can step up. Cam Johnson is finally on track from the 3. Peyton Watson can play. Aaron Gordon is expected to return from injury soon. Jamal Murray is having the best regular season of his career.

There is, however, a big difference in scoring like Murray did with Jokić running the show and consuming so much attention and doing so as the No. 1 option that defenses will now be disproportionately focused on. It doesn’t bode well for the Nuggets that so far this year, when Murray has had to play without Jokić, they have been outscored by eight points per 100 possessions with what would rank in the bottom five on offense and defense, according to CTG.