Now That Trump’s Tariffs Have Been Ruled Illegal, Will Tech Prices Lower?

It’s official: Most of the tariffs imposed by President Trump are illegal. The Supreme Court on Friday overturned the economic orders signed by the president by a 6-3 vote, sounding the death knell for a controversial policy that added an estimated $1,000 tax increase to every American household, raised the prices of consumer goods and alienated key U.S. allies.

There is no need for all of Trump’s tariffs to be removed because of this decision. The court recognized that presidents have the power “to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope.” Instead, the court found that the tariffs adopted based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were improperly adopted because the administration “points to no law” of Congress that states that the IEEPA could be used for tariffs. This means that tariffs on steel and aluminum could continue, since these have been enacted by other laws, but neither the “reciprocal” tariffs imposed on other countries, nor the flat 25% tariffs imposed on goods from countries like Canada, China and Mexico, can currently be maintained.

This raises a lot of questions. Will the Trump administration seek to impose these tariffs through other means, avoiding IEEPA altogether? Will businesses that paid tariffs ever be reimbursed? And, perhaps most urgently for the average consumer, will the prices of common goods, like technology, finally come down?

How will the Supreme Court’s decision affect technology prices?

There is no clear answer to this question, since there is really no precedent here. Trump is the first president to use IEEPA as an argument for enacting tariffs and, as such, it is a huge about-face that is not based on any previous framework.

The reason tariffs are inflationary, or raise the prices of goods, is that they make it more expensive for American companies to import foreign products. People may confuse this point: tariffs impose a tax on the importer of a good, not necessarily the manufacturer of this good. When a company exports its products to the United States with tariffs in place, it does not pay the tariffs directly: it is the company importing those products that pays. As a result, importers increase their prices to compensate. Look at Nintendo: The company increased its original MSRPs for Switch 2 accessories like the Pro Controller and Joy-Con 2, as well as the original Switch, as a result of the tariffs. As these products cost more to import into the United States, prices increase to give the company a cushion. It could have been worse too, since Nintendo didn’t raise the price of the Switch 2 or its games, although it’s unclear if those MSRPs were also set with pricing in mind.

We can therefore expect that if these tariffs disappear, these prices will fall. If Nintendo felt the need to raise Pro Controller prices by $15 in response to the tariffs, that could change now that Trump’s tax no longer imposes a burden on U.S. importers. While anything is possible, I don’t think it’s very likely. For many goods, prices can rise quickly, particularly due to factors such as tariffs, but may take a long time to fall, if at all. Some economists believe that the removal of customs tariffs would cause prices to rise more slowly, but not stopped: a disinflationary effect rather than a deflationary one.

We, the consumers, may be to blame. If companies raise their prices in response to tariffs and consumers continue to buy those products regardless, it shows that the market supports those prices. The consumer does not necessarily see the impact of customs duties disappearing, so why lower prices? Either way, it is only in the best interest of that company, since it will sell goods at higher prices without paying the customs tax. If the company had trouble selling inflated products, perhaps prices would drop: If Nintendo sells significantly fewer Switch units following its price increases, perhaps it would reduce prices to encourage sales. But it’s really hard to say without being on the inside.

Not all price increases are due to tariffs

Then, of course, aside from tariffs, there are the forces at play pushing prices north. We are thinking in particular of computer components, notably RAM. These components are becoming more expensive – and harder to find – not necessarily because of tariffs, but because AI companies are harvesting them for data processing. All of a sudden, anything that works with these components is likely to see its price increase, because part of the market has very high demand. It doesn’t matter if RAM will be cheaper to import next month after the tariffs disappear, if there is no more RAM to buy.

That means the price of your gaming consoles, laptops, smart displays, cars – anything that runs on RAM, GPUs and CPUs – could rise, unless more components can be manufactured to meet demand. SCOTUS might have eased the burden of tariffs on these imports, but it might not lower prices or, worse yet, do anything to stop them from skyrocketing. Micron, the only U.S. RAM producer, didn’t think memory shortages would end this year, even before the tariffs were announced. The company is investing in more facilities to produce components, but that takes time, meaning price increases could continue for the foreseeable future.

Don’t count on the end of tariffs to make big purchases

We can speculate all day about how the end of these tariffs will affect prices, but that’s just it: speculation. Companies will do what they will with prices, and nothing in the Supreme Court’s decision tells us whether our iPhones, Switches, or Echos will be cheaper later this year or not. Prices may fall, decrease slightly, stay the same, increase slowly, or increase quickly. My best guess is that the average consumer product previously affected by these tariffs will remain about the same price as today, barring another major change in the markets – but again, that’s just a guess.

As such, my advice is to make your purchasing decisions based on other, more stable factors: research the products you’re interested in to determine which has the best value; compare prices at different stores, in person and online; wait for traditional sales events if you’re looking for big deals.

The most concrete risk of price increases at present comes from the shortage of computer components. If you’re in the market for a new computer or a device that relies heavily on these components (like gaming consoles), now might be a good time to buy. Prices can easily rise, but take time to come back down.