October Revenue Falls to 27-Year Low

Halloween is shaping up to be scarier than expected for Hollywood and its exhibition partners, but not in a good way.

Domestic box office revenue for October 2025 is expected to be around $425 million – the worst result in 27 years, according to Comscore. This excludes October 2020, in the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic, where revenues were just $55 million, fueled by Christopher Nolan’s project. Principle.

Otherwise, the last time October was this low was 1997, when combined ticket sales were $385.2 million, not adjusted for inflation. In 1998, revenues climbed to $455.6 million before surpassing $600 million for the first time a year later, in 1999. The new millennium brought steady gains, aside from a few bumps in the road, before the pandemic hit.

October programming – outside of Halloween-themed releases – was historically an opportunity for studios and independent distributors to take a break from the summer blockbuster season and prepare for the holiday season. This is also when they start releasing their award-winning films.

But as the schedule grew busier heading into the holiday season, studios began to rely on off-peak months and began opening larger films in October. That peaked with a record $832.8 million in 2018, when Sony’s superhero pic Venom grossed $190 million in October alone, followed by awards contender A star is born ($153.1 million) and the blockbuster reboot of Halloween ($137.9 million).

What went wrong this time? It was a perfect storm of insufficient product due to continued production delays resulting from strikes, a horrible August, and a relatively weak September (often, postponed titles account for a large portion of October’s revenue).

The hardest truth to bear: Many October headlines simply didn’t resonate with the general public. long-awaited Disney Tron: Ares is the month’s top earner, but has only brought in $63.4 million domestically to date. Excluding 2020, this is the lowest audience for the best picture launched in October since DreamWorks SKG. The Wallace and Gromit Movie twenty years ago, in 2005.

Another major failure was that of Dwayne Johnson, featured The smashing machine. Director Benny Safdie’s R-rated drama from specialty distributor A24 had major awards and ambitions, but earned just $11.4 million since its domestic debut over the Oct. 5-7 weekend and $19.7 million worldwide, a near career-worst for Johnson (admittedly, he saw smashing machine as a chance to flex his acting muscles and make his first Oscar appearance).

If it wasn’t for A Showgirl’s Official Coming PartyTaylor Swift’s eleventh-hour theater event tied to the release of her new album, things would be even worse. Billed as a cinematic “experience” versus a movie, it grossed $34.2 million over the weekend of October 3-5, crushing smashing machine. Japanese Anime Deals The Chainsaw Man: the moviewhich exceeded expectations by topping the weekend of October 24 and 25 with $18 million, and that of September Infinite Demon Slayer were also unexpected heroes.

From Sony’s Crunchyroll division, Chainsaw man even arrived ahead of Blumhouse and Universal Black phone 2one of the rare hits of the month. Conversely, Disney’s Bruce Springsteen biographical drama Deliver me from nowhere sang off-key when it opened to $8.9 million domestically, below expectations.

October 23-25 ​​was supposed to be the weekend where Warner Bros. Mortal Kombat II opened, but the picture was pushed back to May 2026. “That left a good-sized hole and there was nothing to really take over,” says Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of Roth MKM Partners.

Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian says there was a lack of overall momentum after a dismal August and a weak September. “Now the pressure is on for titles in early to mid-November, notably Predator: Badlands And The running man to bridge the gap between this rather slow period and the blockbuster holiday corridor,” he says, referring to Thanksgiving tent poles. Villain: for good (November 21) and Zootopia 2 (November 26).

For years, the traditional thinking was that October was a time when moviegoers wanted a break from summer stakes and pictures of the year’s events. This attitude changed when the 20th century Taken 2 did huge business in 2013, helping to hit a record $680 million in revenue in October.

The following year, October was widely analyzed as a launching pad for the Oscars, which also had broad commercial appeal, following Sandra Bullock and George Clooney’s space drama. Gravity helped propel revenue for the month to $628 million. In 2012, revenues exceeded $700 million for the first time, led by missing girl.

Another milestone was reached in 2018 when combined ticket sales for the fall month reached $800 million for the first and only time, at $832.8 million. The reason? Throwing away the rulebook, Sony took advantage of the month to open a comic book movie, Venom. It paid off. Venom grossed $213 million domestically, including $190 million in October ticket sales. (The film’s worldwide gross was $856.1 million.)

Warner Bros. and DC followed suit upon opening Joker in October 2019. Total ticket sales for the month totaled $788.1 million, the second best performance on record. Joker’The domestic share for the month was a record $286 million, on track to reach $355 million domestically and a staggering $1.07 billion globally.

As fate would have it, the Venom the franchise returned to deliver a huge post-pandemic victory for theater owners when Let there be carnagewhich will open in late September 2021, racked up $190 million in ticket sales in October. Total revenue for the month climbed to $645 million, still the best result in the post-pandemic era. Revenue fell to $485.1 million in 2022 – thanks to superhero pic Black Adam– but rose to $567.7 million in 2023, thanks to Taylor Swift: the era tour.

Year-to-date revenue continues to be 3.3 percent ahead of last year, but the lead is too narrow to be reassuring, especially since revenue rose 20 percent earlier this summer.

Everyone’s keeping their fingers crossed that a strong November and December can help maintain that lead, so that domestic revenue for the year won’t fall short of last year’s $8.9 billion. It will be at the Thanksgiving marquee, as well as Christmas headliners, including James Cameron Avatar: Fire and Ash (December 19) and the next Spongebob film (December 19) to hold down the fort. There’s also potential in Christmas titles Anacondas and rewards the player Marty Supremewith a cast led by Timothée Chalamet.

But no one makes bold predictions, even with Avatar waiting in the wings. Will there be a fiery victory or a pile of ashes? Dergarabedian says: “There are many variables. »