NHS bracing for worst ever winter crisis in next fortnight amid rising flu cases | NHS

The NHS is bracing for its worst winter crisis over the next fortnight as worsening flu has left hospitals, GP practices and ambulance services under intense pressure.

Hospitals are already treating a record number of people seriously ill from the flu for this time of year. But things will get worse in the coming days, NHS leaders have said, as medical officials urged people to get vaccinated against the virus so they can enjoy Christmas gatherings safely.

Keir Starmer and Health Secretary Wes Streeting have launched a coordinated attack on the British Medical Association over its “irresponsible” decision to call thousands of resident doctors in England to strike next week.

They urged resident doctors – formerly juniors – to back the Government’s latest bid to resolve the long-running pay and employment dispute and avoid the NHS facing a five-day strike due to begin next Wednesday and which has caused huge disquiet in the service.

Sir Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, has previously described the strike as “cruel”, “calculated” and designed to “cause chaos” given the timing. It could still be canceled, but only if enough resident doctors see an improved offer from Streeting, made Wednesday, as reason enough to do so.

NHS England data released on Thursday showed an average of 2,660 people a day were treated in hospital last week as a direct result of flu – 55% more than the 1,717 the previous week and enough to fill three NHS trusts. This was the highest number ever seen in the first week of December and included 106 people in intensive care, most suffering from breathing difficulties.

Professor Meghana Pandit, co-medical director of NHS England, said: “The number of patients hospitalized with flu is extremely high for this time of year.

“Worse still, it continues to rise and the peak is not yet in sight, so the NHS faces an extremely difficult few weeks ahead. »

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – which mainly affects babies and the elderly – and Covid are also problematic. These, combined with a mutated and highly virulent flu strain circulating, threaten to “engulf hospitals”, Pandit added.

The number of people requiring care has put a growing number of hospitals under so much pressure that they have had to declare a critical incident – ​​admitting they cannot cope with demand and need help.

The UK Health Security Agency has called on people who have not received a flu vaccine to get one as soon as possible.

Dr Conall Watson, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: “There are still plenty of flu vaccines available to protect those who need them. What’s missing is time to be protected before Christmas.”

The agency has sought to reassure the public that the flu vaccine, available across the UK, reduces the risk of flu leaving people seriously ill.

He explains that the virus is causing increasing problems due to an unusually early start to the season and “an H3N2 flu-derived strain…circulating…which means less natural immunity in the community.”

But, he adds, his data “show that the vaccine used this winter is effective in preventing serious illness.”

“H3N2 strains generally affect older people more seriously than H1N1 strains, leading to more hospitalizations and deaths, creating pressure on our NHS this winter.”

Latest figures from the UKHSA showed a low rate of flu vaccination among at-risk groups. Only 37.4% of under-65s with one or more long-term health conditions had been vaccinated as of December 7.

Even fewer pregnant women – just 35.6% – did so, as did 41.5% of children aged two or younger and 42.3% of children aged three.

However, the participation of those over 65 is much higher, at 71.7%.

Doctors have urged the public to do everything possible to minimize the risk of contracting or spreading the flu. Ed Hutchinson, professor of molecular and cellular virology at the University of Glasgow, said: “Things like masking, social distancing and working from home can have a big impact on the spread of flu viruses. »

Shereen Hussein, professor of health policy at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, urged people to check on the well-being of their elderly relatives and neighbors and take them for vaccinations.

“This Christmas, a secure connection should be the priority [when visiting people]. Short but frequent visits, good ventilation, wearing a mask if you have mild symptoms or have been recently ill, and using phone or video calls if an in-person visit is not safe,” Hussein added.

UKHSA’s Watson also reiterated his advice that “if you have symptoms and need to go out, you should consider wearing a face covering”.

Some pharmacies have recently run out of flu vaccine. However, pharmaceutical groups have stressed that these are just a few “isolated” cases and that there is sufficient vaccine available.

Separate data from NHS England also published on Thursday showed the waiting list for people seeking planned hospital treatment increased again in October, albeit slightly, to 7.4 million treatments, up from 7.39 million in September.

Dr Vicky Price, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: “The latest performance data… paints a sadly familiar picture of a system under relentless pressure.

“While the current ‘flu-nami’ is cited as the main cause of the crisis, this is a convenient scapegoat when the reality is that the situation is the direct result of a long-standing and predictable breakdown in NHS capacity and a shortage of workforce.”

Streeting said there was “a tidal wave of flu devastating our hospitals”.