NFL conference championship picks: Rams defeat Seahawks
Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for the NFL conference championships.
All lines and numbers above/under are as per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 4-0 (1,000) record. He is 179-103 (.635) during the regular season and playoffs.
Using point spreads with Farmer’s predicted scores, his ATS record last week was 2-2 (.500). His ATS record in the regular season and playoffs is 129-153 (.457).
All times are Pacific and the TV reflects Los Angeles area broadcasts.
No. 2 Patriots vs. No. 1 Broncos
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye passes during a victory against the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Playoffs January 18.
(Greg M. Cooper / Associated Press)
Sunday, noon. TV: CBS, Paramount+.
Double: Patriots by 4½. OR : 42½.
Obviously, Bo Nix’s injury drastically changes this match. Especially in light of how Denver’s quarterback was playing in the fourth quarter of games. But developing a workable game plan for Jarrett Stidham is in Sean Payton’s wheelhouse, so don’t count out the Broncos. Additionally, Drake Maye has fumbled a total of six times in the last two games, so it won’t be a cakewalk for the Patriots. Still, it looks like New England should take the lead, having beaten a strong defense (Chargers) and an outstanding defense (Houston) heading into this game. The Patriots are also back to playing hard, with the return of Milton Williams under the middle. A Denver win wouldn’t be shocking, but New England has a slight edge.
Take: Patriots 24, Broncos 20
No. 5 Rams at No. 1 Seahawks
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford waves before taking a snap against the Chicago Bears in the second quarter of the Rams’ 20-17 overtime victory in the NFC divisional playoffs at Soldier Field on January 18, 2026.
(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: Fox, Fox deports.
Double: Seahawks by 2½. OR : 46½.
These are the two best teams in the NFL all season, and the Seahawks are the most complete team in the league. I can make a strong argument for either to win. In their two games this season, they were separated by a point and a yard in total. That said, the Seahawks don’t play as well against the Rams as they do against the rest of their opponents. In five games between Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald – dating back to Macdonald’s time as defensive coordinator in Baltimore – McVay’s teams averaged 28 points. The Seahawks have given up an average of 17.2 points to every other opponent this season. It doesn’t help Seattle that Zach Charbonnet is out, especially in pass protection. It could come down to Sam Darnold vs. Matthew Stafford. I’m taking Stafford.
Take: Rams 31, Seahawks 28
