How Texas’ proposed map would affect the battle for the House: From the Politics Desk

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Welcome to the online version of Political officeAn evening newsletter that brings you the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Policy team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign campaign.

Happy Tuesday! Thanks to Scott Bland for managing the ship while I was on vacation.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks out how Donald Trump’s margins in 2024 in the Districts of the Texas Congress would change under the proposed map of the GOP, and what it means for the Race 2026 for the majority of the house. In addition, Shannon Pettypice examines the fears that Trump undergoes the reliability of government data.

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– Adam Wollner


How the proposed Map of Texas would affect the battle of the house

Steve Kornacki analysis

The new Congress map proposed by the Republicans of Texas has not yet been promulgated and can still be modified, but it is clear that the party intends to take five new seats in the state in the middle of next year.

Under the proposal, three districts currently represented by the Democrats are said to be transformed into republican bastions. All three decisively went to Kamala Harris in last year’s elections, but on the basis of the new lines would have supported Donald Trump with two figures. Last year, two Democrats are currently representing two districts that voted for Trump. These districts would become even more pro-Trump as part of the GOP plan.

Overall, there would not be a single district in which the presidential competition was decided by a single figure in Texas.

If it is promulgated, a republican gain of three seats of this plan seems almost automatic. But there would probably be suspense in southern Texas, where the two targeted Democrats – representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez – each would have a chance to hang on.

Although this strongly Hispanic border region has historically been extremely democratic, Trump has made amazing incursions here in the last two elections. But locally, the Democrats still hold most of the offices and retain a powerful infrastructure. This is an open question if this support for Trump will manifest in terms of participation for republican candidates when the president himself is not on the ballot.

On paper, Cuellar has the best chance of surviving. He was re -elected 5 points last year even though Trump wore his 28th 7 -point district. Under the proposed lines of the GOP, Trump’s margin would check up to 10 points, a more difficult SLOG for Cuellar but that his performance in 2024 suggests that he can manage. Of course, Cuellar also faces another form of political danger in the form of accusations of federal corruption. If it is not in the mixture in 2026, its seat will become much more difficult to keep for Democrats.

As for Gonzalez, he retained his seat with approximately 3 points last year, while Trump won the 34th 4 -point district. This margin of Trump influenced 10 points with the new GOP card, making Gonzalez an Outsider – especially with the Republicans recruiting a strong challenger. But if the mid-term environment of next year is favorable to democrats, Gonzalez would certainly be competitive, in particular with the name of Trump absent from the ballot.

National, the Texas Republicans plan would increase the number of democrats representing districts that voted for Trump last year at 16. And with the Ohio Republicans ready to embark on their own redistribution effort, this number would probably increase to 18 or 19. These additional collection opportunities are crucial for the chances of the GOP to hold the room: a net loss of three seats would not be a control of the Democrats.

The last on the Redecipation of Texas Rediscup:

  • The president of Texas House, Dustin Burrows, quickly accelerated the Chamber in session and out of its session, without the minimum number of state legislators to move on to regular affairs after dozens of democrats fled the state.
  • Appearing alongside the Governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker and a group of Democrats from the Texas Chamber, the president of the National Democratic Committee, Ken Martin, said that his party “does not drive” to Trump and brought “a knife to a knife fight”.
  • Pritzker said he would plan to call a special session to reopen the cards of the Illinois congress, where democrats already control 14 out of 17 seats.
  • GOP senator John Cornyn urges the FBI to help the law enforcement organizations to find or stop the Democratic legislators who have left the state.
  • Some Republicans representing competitive districts in the Blue States denounce the push of their party to redraw the lines of the Congress in Texas.

How Trump resumes government data

By Shannon Pettypice

The weather data collected by certain meteorological balls have been interrupted. HIV statistics in transgender people have been cleaned on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. And basic public figures, as the number of people work for the federal government, have been frozen or delayed for months.

Through the federal government, President Donald Trump has exerted his influence on the data used by researchers, economists and scientists, an effort that took place largely behind the scenes until Friday, when he pulled the head of the work statistics office.

The agency collects and publishes economic data, and Trump accused its former chef, Erika Mcentarfer, of providing false employment data last week showing a recent slowdown in the labor market.

“The figures were faked. Biden did not manage well, he was going badly,” said Trump in an interview on CNBC, referring to the job numbers.

Presidents of the two political parties often seek to run government data to their advantage, cherry selection figures that put their agendas in the best possible light. But MCentarfer’s dismissal has aroused criticism of economists, Wall Street investors and even Republicans who raise broader concerns about the continuous reliability of government data once considered the Order Stone.

“We have to look for objective statistics somewhere. When people who provide statistics are dismissed, it is much more difficult to make judgments which, you know, statistics will not be politicized,” said Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., In an interview. “You can’t really make the figures different or better in dismissing people who make the count.”

Learn more about Shannon โ†’


๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ The other best stories today

  • ๐ŸŽค disappear at the town hall: During an event with the voters, the representative Mike Flood, R-Neb., Was heckled on the files of Jeffrey Epstein, the dismissal of Trump of the BLS Commission and the Cups of Medicaid. And representative Adam Smith, D-Wash., Said that one of his staff members had been “physically attacked” during a town hall.
  • ๐Ÿ“ƒ Epstein saga: The committee of the Chamber investigating the Epstein affair published assignments to former president Bill Clinton, the former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and several former officials of the Ministry of Justice for their testimony. Learn more โ†’
  • ๐Ÿ” Flashback 2016: The Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered the MJ prosecutors to launch an investigation into the Grand Jury to find out if Obama administration officials committed federal crimes when they evaluated Russia’s actions in the 2016 elections. Find out more โ†’
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Middle East last: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to put pressure on to “occupy the entire Gaza Strip” like cease-fire talks with Hamas blur and the hunger crisis in the spirals of the besieged Palestinian enclave. Learn more โ†’
  • ๐Ÿ‘‹ Hello again: Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer met Trump in the White House for the third time this year. Learn more โ†’
  • โœ‰๏ธ Back to the sender: The Trump administration officially ends the requirement by email led by Elon Musk for federal workers. Learn more โ†’
  • Take a walk: Trump made an unexpected appearance on the roof of the White House to question new projects. Learn more about the AP โ†’
  • Follow the Updates of Live Policy โ†’

It’s all of the political bureau for the moment. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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