Rebuilding global coffee stocks may need at least two good crops, experts say

By Roberto Samora

Campinas, Brazil (Reuters) – Global coffee actions can take at least a few good cultures after successive deficits in the balance of the offer, officials of the coffee industry said on a coffee dinner and a summit in Brazil on Friday.

Why is it important

World coffee prices have reached a record level earlier this year, in the midst of supply and resilient demand problems.

Even with a large harvest expected next season in Brazil, the largest producer and exporter in the world, this may not provide immediate relief to coffee consumers.

Key quotes

“I do not think that (the industry will be able) to accumulate actions this year next year. I think we would need at least two good harvests,” the cooxupe of Brazilian coffee, Luiz Fernando Dos Reis, told Reuters.

“To reconstruct the actions we had four years ago, it will take at least two years of very good harvests, if everything is going well,” said research director at the Café de Louis Dreyfus Company, Charles Chiapolino.

“And we know how difficult it is to keep the climate aligned around the world for two consecutive years, it’s almost impossible,” added Chiapolino.

“Currently, no one can build actions with stable or growing demand in certain countries,” said Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, German Bahamon.

What is the next step

Reis, de Coxupe – The largest coffee cooperative in the world – said that even if Brazil produces a great harvest during the 2026/27 season, the following culture should not be as good since the main variety of cavities cultivated in the country, Arabica, alternating in a high and low production biennial cycle.

(Report by Roberto Samora; writing by Andre Romani; edition by Rosalba O’Brien)