Republicans shoulder more shutdown blame, as signs of voter irritation with both parties pile up

Meanwhile, voters’ negative views of the Democratic Party, including among Democrats, are relatively unchanged from record-high ratings in the March NBC News poll. The Republican Party is also swamped with voters, but not to the same degree. And in another poll question, voters responded positively to the idea of ​​expelling all members of Congress.

At the same time, the poll also finds that major supporters of both parties are on their side in an impasse over the shutdown – which may be why it has dragged on for a month with little sign of a resolution.

The groups most likely to blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown include key Democratic constituencies like self-described liberals, young voters, those in urban areas, black voters and more educated voters. Those blaming Democrats include self-identified MAGA supporters, white men, and rural and older voters.

“Each party could look at this data and say, ‘Don’t blink,'” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

Neither party has blinked yet, as Democrats oppose government funding bills unless a deal is reached to extend expiring health care subsidies.

“Health care, at the center of the government shutdown debate, is one area where Democrats continue to hold the upper hand,” Horwitt said.

The survey also found that 34% of voters say they or a family member had their job, services or benefits affected by the shutdown – the highest share in the NBC News poll covering other shutdowns in 2019, 2013, 1996 and 1995.

Those personally affected are also among the voters most likely to blame Republicans for the impasse and largely align with Democrats, including young women and black voters, 50% of whom say they have been affected.

“Historically, Republicans are seen as not being as pro-government,” McInturff said, also pointing to federal layoffs brought about by Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency that have influenced voters’ opinions of his presidency. The Republican pollster added that while Democratic votes are needed to advance legislation in the Senate thanks to the 60-vote threshold to end debate, voters can largely see Republicans in control of the government.

“Given those factors, I think the default for people is that it’s a Republican effort to determine who’s responsible. … We’ve had 30 years of shutdowns, and that’s the most blame for Democrats. So both things can be true at the same time,” McInturff said.

Although voters place more blame for the ongoing shutdown on Trump and the Republican Party, the survey reveals deep resentment toward both parties, as well as negative views from members of Congress.

Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, close to a record positive rate of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.

Republicans have a net negative rating of 9 points, with 46% having a negative view of the party and 37% having a positive view of the party.

And according to these results, the impasse Democrats find themselves in has not improved opinion of the party within their own ranks.

The gap between the two parties’ ratings persists in part because 22% of Democrats say they have a negative view of their own party, while only 8% of Republicans say the same about the Republican Party. Last March, 19% of Democrats said they had a negative opinion of their party.

The new poll also finds that 59% of Democrats have a positive opinion of their own party – a figure unchanged since March. (The rest said they were neutral or unsure.)

Asked how they would vote if they could choose to defeat and replace every member of Congress, including their own representatives, 57 percent of voters said they would vote to do so — the highest share in an NBC News poll since October 2013. Forty percent said they would not oust every member of Congress if they had the chance.

Similar shares of Democrats (57%) and Republicans (55%), as well as 62% of independents, say they would vote to replace every lawmaker.

These results come as more candidates plan to contest primary challenges against incumbent lawmakers in the 2026 election cycle and as both parties face the prospect of generational change following the 2024 election results.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters Oct. 24-28 via a combination of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.