Republicans top California’s race for governor, new poll shows

Los Angeles — Despite a long-standing Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race as June primary elections approach.

These disconcerting results appear to be driven primarily by the fact that the state’s left-leaning electorate does not feel inspired by a single candidate among the top eight Democrats. Because of California’s two-primary rule, this lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of the November elections that will determine the next leader of the union’s largest state, although that is still considered unlikely.

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17 percent of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the support of 16 percent, according to a poll released Wednesday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies and co-sponsored by the Times.

Close behind are Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom have the support of 13 percent of likely voters surveyed. Aside from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who registered 10% support after investing tens of millions of dollars in his campaign, no other Democrat had the support of more than 5% of likely voters, according to the poll.

Returning officer Mark DiCamillo said he was stunned by how divided voters were and how little they knew about the candidates less than 60 days before ballots began arriving in Californians’ mailboxes.

“It’s historic to me, especially since none of the candidates have a really positive image with voters, which is also surprising. I mean, maybe that’s one of the reasons why voters are disengaged, they’re just not excited about any of the candidates,” he said. “They’re kind of sleepwalking through this election.”

Both Swalwell and Porter grew closer to the progressive wing of the party and gained national prominence as frequent guests on cable news shows and as combative, sometimes theatrical, committee members during congressional oversight hearings. That notoriety has sparked attacks from Republicans and the far right and increased their popularity among the Democratic base — both critical for voters looking for a strong candidate to challenge President Donald Trump.

Porter rebounded slightly from a drop in polls in the fall after videos surfaced of her berating an aide and a reporter. She also has the highest favorable rating of any candidate in this area at 34%.

According to the survey, likely voters’ support for Steyer increased from just 1 percent in the October Berkeley poll to 10 percent. The momentum comes after Steyer spent about $50 million running TV ads since December, according to an analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly.

Among other top Democrats running: Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was supported by 5% of likely voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan by 4%, and former State Comptroller Betty Yee and State Supt. of Public Education Tony Thurmond by 1%.

The poll found that 16% of likely voters were either undecided or supported other, lesser-known candidates.

The fragmented support for Democrats hoping to become the state’s next governor has manifested itself in other ways as well. On Monday, the powerful California Federation of Labor voted in favor of four candidates for governor, half of the Democratic field.

DiCamillo said he believes the poll’s inclusion of candidate titles that voters will see on their ballots is crucial in a low-information election.

“It really matters in a race where voters don’t have a lot of information, or say they don’t know much about the candidates,” he said, adding that it could especially help Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff. “His job title is pretty impressive, and voters think it’s credible, so let me consider it.”

Fears that two Republicans would capture the top two spots in the June 2 primary prompted California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks to urge low-scoring candidates to think about their viability and drop out if they didn’t see a path forward earlier this month.

Some candidates bristled, arguing that party leaders were effectively telling all candidates of color to leave the race. Except for one candidate, all of the major Democrats running responded by quickly filing their campaign materials with the secretary of state’s office, meaning their names will appear on the ballot.

The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primaries are the only ones to advance to the November general election, regardless of political party.

The chances of a Republican becoming California’s next governor appear slim. No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006, when Hollywood movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected to a second term as governor. Registered Democratic voters in the state outnumber Republicans almost twice to one.

Compared to previous gubernatorial races that had well-known Democratic frontrunners, neither party’s candidates are particularly well-known among voters. A large number of voters have no opinion on either candidate — including about two-thirds of those surveyed on Mahan, Yee and Thurmond.

Voters were much more tuned in to the issues they believe are most important to the state’s next governor.

Affordability was dominant among all voters, regardless of political ideology, according to the poll. Four in 10 voters said lowering the cost of living in California was one of the top issues the next governor should prioritize, and a smaller number also highlighted building affordable housing and lowering gas and utility prices.

Affordability “is the number one issue for voters, both here in California and across the country. There’s no question about it,” DiCamillo said. “It may be even more urgent here in California, given that the cost of living is higher than in most other places.”

Building new housing, easing regulations to allow such construction quickly and reducing the cost of buying a home, dissuading private businesses from buying homes, and reducing gas prices are among the topics frequently raised by candidates on the campaign trail and in debates.

A notable divide was evident among voters asked about reducing waste, fraud and political corruption in state government, the poll found. Nearly 50% of Republicans said it was a top priority, compared with 10% of Democrats and just over a quarter of voters who did not indicate a party preference.

DiCamillo said that sentiment aligns with President Trump’s message and what his administration is pursuing in the federal government. Trump has repeatedly described California as a land of waste, fraud and abuse. On Monday, when he launched a task force to combat fraud to be led by Vice President JD Vance, California was among the states he singled out as having insufficient oversight of federal funds.

GOP voters in California share similar sentiments, DiCamillo said.

In Washington, D.C., “they’re cutting spending, trying to reduce the size of government and … also reducing waste,” he said. California “The Republicans, since the Democrats have been in control for so long, they think…we need more here in California as well.”

The IGS/Times Berkeley Poll surveyed 5,019 registered California voters online, in English and Spanish, March 9-14. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points in either direction in the overall sample, and higher figures for subgroups.

This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Republicans lead California gubernatorial race, new poll finds