Florida dives into the redistricting arms race despite political and legal hurdles

Florida is entering the national redistricting arms race, with a legislative hearing Thursday expected to kick off a contentious new map-drawing battle.

Republicans hope that Florida, where they have full control of state government and already represent 20 of 28 congressional districts, will be fertile ground to further strengthen the party’s narrow House majority ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

But it will not be easy, neither legally nor politically.

From a legal perspective, voters in 2010 approved a constitutional amendment intended to block partisan gerrymandering. The state Supreme Court weakened the amendment’s ban on racial gerrymandering, but the ban on partisan gerrymandering remains intact.

“No individual district or distribution plan shall be made with the intent to favor or disfavor any political party or incumbent,” the Florida Constitution reads.

That means lawmakers will have to explain and defend why they redrew a map they passed just three years ago, without mentioning the partisan goals that motivated other states across the country to pursue an unusually aggressive redistricting campaign in the middle of the decade.

“While this partisan redistricting battle is not illegal in other states, it is illegal in the state of Florida,” Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, told NBC News.

Politics is not simple either. Although the state has a Republican governor and legislature, party leaders are divided on how to proceed.

The Florida House, eager to engage in redistricting, has scheduled two hearings this month. But Gov. Ron DeSantis said this week he wants a new map drawn in the spring, just days before the application deadline. That way, the state could take into consideration a possible Supreme Court ruling on a Louisiana redistricting case, which could weaken the Voting Rights Act and make the process easier.

The Senate GOP leader sided with DeSantis in the fight on Wednesday.

“The governor has expressed a desire to address this issue next spring. As such, there is no work underway regarding potential mid-decade redistricting in the Senate at this time,” Florida Senate President Ben Albritton told colleagues in a memo.

Albritton nevertheless warned lawmakers to prepare for a trial, reminding them to stay away from supporters trying to influence the process and to preserve all their communications and records for likely prosecution.

State House Speaker Danny Perez did not respond to a request for comment.

No proposed map has yet been filed, but it is expected that a reshuffle could net Republicans between three and five seats, with three seats considered the most likely scenario.

Any possible special legislative measures the session is expected to take place in early April, with the state’s federal candidate qualification deadline being April 20.

Three seats that could be affected are held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto in Orlando and Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida.

If they decide to be more aggressive, Republicans could also risk a “dummymander,” a reshuffle that helps the opposing party by making previously safe seats more competitive.

Democrats have little ability to block any redistricting efforts since the Florida Legislature is dominated by Republicans. But a coalition of more than 30 pro-democracy and progressive groups plans to bus more than 300 protesters to the state Capitol in Tallahassee on Thursday to oppose the Republican Party’s efforts.

Florida’s entry into the redistricting battle comes at a critical time for Republicans, who kicked off the cycle over the summer by passing a new map in Texas that could net the party as many as five seats. But since then, fears have grown that Democrats could neutralize the Republican Party’s surge.

California Democrats responded by adopting new voting districts last month, which could reverse any Republican gains in Texas. And while Republicans have successfully passed new maps in Missouri and North Carolina, efforts elsewhere have failed to lead to the gains the party hoped for or have stalled.

And now Republicans are awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court’s final decision on whether they will be able to use their new map in Texas in 2026.

The redistricting season is not over, however. A map that could bring Republicans two seats in Indiana is currently under consideration in the state Legislature, although it is unclear whether it has enough support in the Senate.

In Virginia, Democrats have launched a multi-step process to draw new maps ahead of midterm elections in October, which will stretch into the spring. State House Speaker Don Scott raised the possibility of an aggressive map Wednesday that could result in a four-seat gain for Democrats.

And lawmakers in Maryland, Illinois and Kansas face continued pressure for redistricting.