ROOKE: Did Democrats Over-Perform In Election Sweep — Or Was Kamala Harris Just Uniquely Terrible?
Tuesday’s elections marked a Democratic resurgence, with Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey, progressive victories in New York and a pro-redistricting vote in California.
The results exceeded poll results, which had shown much closer races in Virginia and New Jersey than actually occurred on Election Day. This clear outperformance puts Democrats in the prime of their lives as they look to build on their 2025 victories in tougher races in deep red states.
However, reality often differs from our desires, and that is absolutely true when analyzing Tuesday’s Democratic victories. Rather than these races signaling a broad revival of the party, the data reveals how former Vice President Kamala Harris was uniquely flawed as a candidate. (Subscribe to Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)
Harris’ 2024 loss to President Donald Trump wasn’t just structural. Despite the fact that she peddled the narrative that she didn’t have enough time to make things happen and win. His loss stemmed primarily from the fact that his personality was unpopular with voters due to misfired messages that repelled major swing groups.
🚨NEW: Jon Stewart *STUNNED* as Kamala Harris says she thinks Biden ‘WAS ENTIRELY COMPETENT TO SERVE’🚨
STEWART: “Really?”
HARRIS: “Yeah, I do. »
STEWART: “It surprises me, actually.” @DailyCaller pic.twitter.com/Pj0VmxS6HU
– Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 30, 2025
Nationally, she underperformed former President Joe Biden by about 7 million votes. Her candidacy erased the gains Biden made in 2020 among independents, giving Trump a 10-point gain over 2020. Harris couldn’t even woo Republican voters who were never Trump. Despite rallies with anti-Trump Republicans like Liz Cheney, Trump still won the moderate vote by 5 points over Harris.
Democratic victories can be explained by the fact that any candidate would have been preferable to Harris in 2024, most of their victories came in decidedly blue or purple states more favorable to Democratic candidates, and Republicans often perform poorly in off-year elections because much of their constituency is made up of low-propensity voters. (ROOKE: There is a way to cleanse ourselves of a Republican bloodbath before the midterms)
Still, Republicans will have to find a way to win without Trump on the ballot. The economy will be key in the 2026 midterms. It would be unwise for Democrats to focus on their 2025 “wins” as their plan for the midterms. In reality, these Democratic candidates were fortunate not to be weighed down by Harris’ unappealing personality.
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