3 warning signs for Republicans in our new poll: From the Politics Desk

Trump hit a new low in the latest Decision Desk survey, with 37% of adults approving of his job performance and 63% disapproving. — including 50% who strongly disapprove. Republicans are partly responsible for this drop: Trump has seen a 4-point drop in his support for this group since the last poll taken in late January and early February. And the percentage of Republicans who strongly approved of his job performance fell 6 points.

Trump is underwater on two key issues: The economy was once again the top concern of Americans in the poll. When asked specifically which economic issue mattered most, inflation and the rising cost of living were hands down the top answer. And they gave Trump low marks on the subject: 68% said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living. The share of Americans who strongly disapprove (52%) is up 7 points since last summer, the last time the Decision Desk survey asked the question. And the percentage of Republicans who said they approve of Trump’s handling of inflation (73%) is 10 points lower.

The numbers were similar for Iran: 67% disapproved of its handling of the war, including 54% who strongly disapproved. Among Republicans, 74% disapprove. And overall, 61% of adults believe the United States should not take further military action in Iran.

Young Americans – including Republicans – are feeling more pessimistic: Eight in ten Gen Zers (respondents ages 18 to 29) said the U.S. is on the wrong track, a 12-point gap from a poll taken last August and September.

The shift among Gen Z Republicans was particularly notable. In the new poll, they were divided on whether the country was on the right track. But last summer, 67 percent said they were on track.

For Subscribers: Graham Platner Uses Voter Reaction to Iran War to Power His Maine Senate Campaign

By Sahil Kapur and Jackie Montalvo

Graham Platnera veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and was deeply disappointed by the war, is angry with the president. Donald Trumpmilitary action in Iran.

“It’s really sad and frustrating to see a system and people in power doing essentially the same thing that got me into the Iraq war, but without any attempt to deceive anyone,” Platner told NBC News after a town hall here.

In Maine’s Senate race, backlash over the war with Iran played to Platner’s strengths — both against his Democratic rival and the two-term governor. Janet Millswho also opposed the war, and the longtime Republican senator. Susan Collinswho has so far voted to allow Trump to continue leading it.

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Republicans weigh the size of their next party financing bill

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

As they consider approving a budget resolution this week, Senate Republican leaders are facing internal divisions over the scope of their bill to fund ICE and the Border Patrol for four years.

Some want to limit the bill to immigration enforcement only. Others want to expand it to include other GOP priorities, fearing it could be their last chance to pass a major bill without Democratic support before the midterms.

The party’s ability to resolve the issue will be crucial to defunding the Department of Homeland Security, which is in a record 66-day-plus shutdown. That’s because House Republicans are delaying the Senate-passed bill to fund the rest of DHS — including the TSA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Coast Guard — until the upper chamber votes on the party’s bill.

The adoption of the budget in session could be enough for the President Mike JohnsonR-La., to allow a House vote on this DHS bill. This would begin the process of crafting filibuster-proof legislation that could circumvent the Senate’s 60-vote rule and exclude Democrats from the process of defunding ICE and the Border Patrol.

But if Senate Republicans find themselves deadlocked on the budget, the DHS bill could remain stalled. President Donald Trump issued an executive order to move money to return TSA agents’ salaries so they return to work, but it’s unclear whether they will receive another paycheck without a new law to approve the funding.

Senate Majority Leader John ThuneRS.D., said he wanted to keep the bill “skinny” and focus only on ICE and the Border Patrol. And the senator. Lindsey GrahamRS.C., chairman of the Budget Committee, told NBC News that nothing else is guaranteed because you have to get the votes. Senate Republicans can only afford to lose three of their 53 members in the vote.

“I think we need to put as much into it as possible,” the senator said. Tommy TubervilleR-Ala., who called for including funding for the war in Iran and attempting to add provisions related to funding the SAVE America Act, a bill passed by Trump. “The only thing we did last year was the big, beautiful bill. Now we’re going to have one this year. Let’s put a saddle on it and ride it, and see how much we can do.”

The senator John KennedyR-La., also called for trying to pass elements of the SAVE America Act in the spirit of reconciliation, although the bill’s author, Sen. Mike LeeR-Utah, insists it was not designed for the budget process and is not eligible for it.

That’s not all. The senator Ted CruzR-Texas, said he was “vigorously” pushing Republicans to add tax-cutting provisions such as “indexing capital gains to inflation.”

“Right now, the leadership plan is to have a skinny, anorexic bill that only provides funds for ICE and [CBP]. I think it’s short-sighted,” Cruz said last week on Fox Business. “We shouldn’t miss this opportunity to think big.”

“There will be no other reconciliation,” Cruz said. “It’s the only train leaving the station. If we want to do something big and bold before the midterm elections, we either do it now or we’re going to end up missing out completely.”

Tuberville also predicted there would not be another all-Republican bill.

“We might as well go home after this one,” he said.

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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