If a new Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Friday bears out, a blue wave may wash over next year’s midterm elections.
The survey found that registered voters prefer that Democrats control the next Congress, by a 9-percentage-point margin. Such a large spread would likely be enough for Democrats to overcome the GOP’s corrupt redistricting efforts across the country.
Fifty-three percent of voters want Democrats to be in control, to serve as a check on President Donald Trump, according to the poll. And 44% want Republicans to be in control, to support Trump’s agenda.
Those numbers are somewhat reminiscent of what The Washington Post/Ipsos found in October 2018, right before Democrats rode a blue wave to retaking the House. That year, 55% of voters wanted Democrats to control Congress to be a check on Trump, while 39% wanted Republicans to hold a majority to back Trump’s agenda.
In 2018, Democrats went on to win the national House popular vote by over 8 points, taking 235 seats in the House.
Democrats need to flip just a handful seats to win control of the House in 2026. For a while now, political handicappers have said Democrats are favorites to win that chamber. But their path to retaking the Senate next year is much steeper, though not impossible in a massive wave election.
Trump’s approval will be key to the outcome of the 2026 midterms. And that’s bad news for Republicans.
The same Washington Post poll found Trump with an overall approval rating of just 43%.
Worse, he’s underwater on every major issue. Just 40% of Americans approve of the way he is handling the economy—which polling shows is among the most important issues for the electorate.
Even historically strong issues for Trump are now weak points, with just 44% approving of his handling of both crime and immigration.
Those dour numbers come as Trump has had his Immigration and Customs Enforcement goons violently arrest citizens merely because they looked Hispanic, as well as his decision to send in the military to police Washington, D.C.
Trump’s dictatorial overreach appears to be repelling voters. And that looks like it could be a problem for Republicans next November.
