Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come

Washington – Humans are on the right track to release as much greenhouse gases in less than three years as a key threshold to limit global warming will be almost inevitable, according to a study that will be published on Thursday.

The report provides that the company will have issued enough carbon dioxide at the beginning of 2028 than the crossing of a large long -term temperature border will be more likely than improbable. Scientists calculate that in this stage, there will be enough gas trapping in the atmosphere to create 50 to 50 or more chances that the world is locked up at 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees fahrenheit) for long -term warming from pre -industrial times. This level of gas accumulation, which comes from the combustion of fuels such as petrol, oil and coal, is earlier than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things are not worse. They worsen more quickly,” said the study co-author, Zeke Hausfather from the technological company Stripe and the Berkeley Earth climate surveillance group. “We are actively in the wrong direction in a critical period that we would need to achieve our most ambitious climatic objectives. Some report, there is a silver lining. I don’t think there are really in this one. “

This 1.5 objective, which takes place for the first time in the 2015 Paris Agreement, was the cornerstone of international efforts to slow down the worsening of climate change. Scientists say that the crossing of this limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, larger storms and an increase in sea level which could jeopardize the small island nations. Over the past 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, as well as other greenhouse gases such as methane and specific increases in global temperatures.

In the report on the global climate change indicators on Thursday, researchers calculated that the company can only spit 143 billion tonnes of additional (130 billion tonnes) of carbon dioxide before the limit of 1.5 becomes technically inevitable. The world produces 46 billion tonnes (42 billion metric tonnes) per year, so that the inevitability should strike around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, scientists wrote. The world is now about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees fahrenheit) for long -term warming since pre -industrial times, according to the report.

The report, which has been published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the warming rate caused by humans by decade has increased to almost half-degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat that the earth absorbs from the sun and the quantity which it radiates in space, a key signal of climate change, accelerates, according to the ratio.

“It is unfortunately a fairly depressing image, where if you look through the indicators, we find that the recordings are really being beaten everywhere,” said the main author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I cannot conceive of a situation where we can really avoid spending 1.5 degrees of very long -term temperature change.”

The increase in fossil fuel combustion emissions is the main driver. But the reduction in particle pollution, which includes soot and SMOG, is another factor because these particles have had a cooling effect which has masked even more warming of the appearance, scientists said. The changes in the clouds also take into account. Everything presents itself in the energy imbalance of the Earth, which is now 25% higher than it was than about a decade, said Forster.

The energy imbalance of the earth “is the most important measure of the quantity of heat trapped in the system,” said Hausfather.

The earth continues to absorb more and more heat than it releases it. “It’s very clearly accelerating. It’s worrying,” he said.

The planet temporarily exceeded the key limit 1.5 last year. The world has reached 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) for warming since pre -industrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is supposed to be measured over a longer period, generally considered 20 years. However, the globe could reach this long -term threshold in the coming years, even if individual years have not constantly reached this brand, due to the functioning of the Earth’s carbon cycle.

This 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which the countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable for their societies,” said the co-author of the study, Jeri Rogelj, air conditioner at the Imperial College in London.

The brand is so important because once crossed, many small island nations could possibly disappear due to the elevation of sea level, and scientific evidence show that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond this level, in particular injuring poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to limit the emissions and impacts of climate change should continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold “means increasingly frequent and severe climates of the type that we now see too often in the United States and in the world – unprecedented heat waves, extremely hot drought, extreme precipitation events and larger storms”, which was not part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas has&The university climatologist who was not part of the study, said that the 1.5 objective was ambitious and not realistic, so people should not focus on this particular threshold.

“This does not mean the end of the world,” said drew in an email, although it has agreed that “each tenth of the degree of warming will lead to increasingly worse impacts.”

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