Seismic activity on the moon could pose risk to long-term lunar infrastructure

A new article reveals that the soil acceleration of the Moon holders, rather than the impacts of meteors, was responsible for the displacement of the lunar landscapes of the Taurus Valley of the Moon, where the astronauts of Apollo 17 landed in 1972.

The article, written by Smithsonian Senior Scientist Emeritus Thomas R. Watters and associate professor of geology at the University of Maryland, Nicholas Schmerr, is published in the journal Scientific advances.

Scientists have analyzed the evidence of the Apollo 17 landing site, where NASA astronauts collected boulder Falls samples and landslides that were probably triggered by the bilons. By studying the geological evidence left behind, the researchers were able to estimate the strength of these former moon tails and identify their most likely source.

“We do not have the kind of strong movement instruments which can measure the seismic activity on the moon as we do on earth, so we had to seek other means of evaluating the amount of movement of the soil, such as Boulder Falls and landslides which are mobilized by these seismic events,” said Schmerr.

Scientists have found that the moon with amplitudes around 3.0 – relatively low according to earth standards, but significant so close to the source – has occurred several times in the last 90 million years along the Lee -Lincoln flaw, a geological fracture that crosses the valley soil. The motif suggests that the fault, one of the thousands of similar flaws on the Moon, can always be active.

“The global distribution of young thrust defects such as the Lee-Lincoln flaw, their potential to be always active and the potential to train new continuous contraction defects must be taken into account when planning the location and the evaluation of the stability of permanent avant-ups on the moon,” said Watters.

Watters and Schmerr also calculated the lunar seismic risk, estimating a chance on 20 million chances of potentially damaging damage to the moon occurring one day given to an active fault.

“It doesn’t look much, but everything in life is a calculated risk,” noted Schmerr. “The risk of something catastrophic that happens is not zero, and although it is small, it is not something that you can completely ignore while planning long -term infrastructure on the lunar surface.”

The researchers found that short -term missions, such as Apollo 17, were relatively low risk projects, but longer projects are faced with gradually higher exposure. Future missions with landing of higher appearance – such as the human landing system of starship – could be vulnerable to the ground acceleration of neighboring ciqués which would threaten their stability.

The results are particularly relevant because NASA pursues the Artemis program, which aims to establish a sustained human presence on the Moon. Watters and Schmerr stressed that future missions are faced with additional considerations beyond the risks of the Apollo era.

“If astronauts are there for a day, they would just have a very unlucky if there was a harmful event,” added Schmerr. “But if you have a habitat or an equivalent mission on the moon for an entire decade, this represents 3,650 days of 1 million out of 20 million, or the risk of a dangerous bit becoming approximately 1 in 5500. It is similar to switch from the extremely low poker rating to a much higher lottery to be treated with four types of poker.”

Schmerr believes that his work with Watters represents a new border in lunar paleosismology – the study of ancient earthquakes. Unlike the earth, where scientists can dig trenches to study historical seismic activity, lunar researchers must rely on creative approaches using existing data and samples. Schmerr expects this field to progress quickly with new technologies, high -resolution orbital imagery and future Artemis missions that will deploy seismometers with more than 50 years of technological improvements compared to the instruments of the Apollore era.

“We want to make sure that our exploration of the moon is done safely and that investments are made in a carefully thought out,” said Schmerr. “The conclusion to which we arrived is: do not build just above a escarpment, or a recently active fault. The more distant escape, more danger.”