Senate GOP eyes floor fight as Trump-backed voter ID bill runs into math problem

Senate Republicans are bracing for a floor battle this week over doomed Trump-backed voter ID legislation.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is expected to launch the Republican Party’s strategy for the Saving America’s Voters (SAVE) Act on Tuesday afternoon.

This will not be done through parliamentary obstruction, despite pressure from President Donald Trump and a fervent ecosystem of conservative influencers to do so. That’s because there isn’t enough support among Republicans to follow through on this decision.

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President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida on March 9, 2026. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

“It’s a question of math,” Thune said. “And I am, for better or for worse, the one who has to be realistic and clear-eyed about what we can achieve here. And so we will continue to convey that. And I think we are going to fight on the ground. We are going to vote on this.”

The Republicans’ plan is to record Senate Democrats’ negative vote on the bill. And Senate Democrats are ready to oblige.

“Democrats will not let Donald Trump pass this bill in the Senate. Not this week, not ever,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on a call with reporters over the weekend. “And Democrats are going to make sure the American people have a chance to make their decision in this fall’s elections.”

Part of the problem among Republicans, aside from the enormous amount of time it would take, is that the GOP is not united in blocking Democratic amendments that could radically change the bill if they went the filibuster route.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who is one of the leading voices in favor of the SAVE America Act in the Senate, acknowledged that Republicans “don’t have the votes for the filibuster right now.”

“We just have to, you know, we have to look at all the ways we can try to pass it,” Scott said.

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Still, Tuesday’s first procedural step will require a simple majority but could still need help from Vice President JD Vance to break the tie.

And throughout the process, which could stretch over several days, there will be a handful of key lawmakers to watch in both chambers.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said last week that he would not support the SAVE America Act and planned to “do everything I can to stop it from even moving forward.”

It remains to be seen how this might play out during the long ground battle.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., pledged to “do everything I can” to stop the SAVE America Act, which the Senate is expected to vote on this week. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Still, Tillis’ objection to the bill is notable, given Republicans’ slim margin for error in the upper chamber.

He would prefer to pass legislation that would incentivize states to adopt voter ID and cautioned that additional changes desired by Trump, such as banning men in women’s sports or stopping mail-in voting with limited exceptions, “don’t seem to let the people at the tip of the spear — that is, those people who are running for re-election — define what we should vote on next week.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska spoke out early against the SAVE America Act and asserted that “universal mandates from Washington, D.C., rarely work in places like Alaska.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, criticized the desire of conservatives and President Donald Trump to pass voter ID laws and compared the move to one by congressional Democrats years ago. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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“Election Day is fast approaching,” Murkowski said in February. “Imposing new federal requirements now, while states are in full preparation, would negatively impact election integrity by forcing election officials to scramble to adhere to the new policies, likely without the necessary resources.”

Whether she will vote to allow Republicans to open debate on the bill and move forward with their set of amendments remains an open question. Fox News Digital did not immediately receive a response from its office for comment.

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa.

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who often opposes his party on key Senate votes, likes the idea of ​​voter ID but disagrees with some of the changes Trump is demanding.

Sen. John Fetterman, Democrat of Pennsylvania, once again bucked his party in messaging against voter ID legislation gaining momentum in the Senate, arguing it was not a “radical idea.” (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

Fetterman said on “Mornings with Maria” that the SAVE America Act was “unnecessarily complicated,” particularly Trump’s request to include a sweeping ban on mail-in ballots with limited exceptions.

“I said it’s not Jim Crow and it’s not extreme things, but mail-in voting is absolutely secure,” Fetterman said. “Some of the best examples in the country are red states like Florida and Ohio.”

House GOP

Meanwhile, in the House, a rebellion is brewing among Thune’s fellow Republicans.

Several Republican lawmakers are threatening to vote against any legislation coming out of the Senate until the SAVE America Act is passed, which, given the circumstances, could lead to a long stalemate.

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Many of these threats first emerged earlier this month during a phone call to House Republican lawmakers, following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., was among those who pushed the House to reject any Senate bill until the measure passed, telling Speaker Mike Johnson, according to multiple sources on the call, “If we don’t get this done, or at least show that we have some backbone, we’re done. The midterms are over.”