Should We Trust Polls Campaigns Leak To The Press?

Now that we are on the other side of the Labor Day and that summer emerges, it is – as tradition says – when the accent on political campaigns is really starting to warm up. The out -of -year elections in November will draw some attention, but the main attraction is still the republican presidential primary 2024.

In this episode of the Podcast Fivethirtyeight Politics, we ask a question to which we will undoubtedly come back within four months to the Iowa caucus: is the appointment of Donald Trump inevitable? And if it is not inevitable, how can we place the probability that it wins the primary of the GOP in a historical context?

We also have partial results of two special primary elections and we will debate “good or improper use of surveys” for a classic and controversial subject: internal surveys.