Shutdown deal might not be that bad for Democrats politically : NPR
American flags flutter in the wind along the National Mall on November 10, 2025 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC.
Tom Brenner/Getty Images
hide caption
toggle caption
Tom Brenner/Getty Images
On its face, the likely start of the process to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is a major Democratic capitulation.
Most congressional Democrats were against the deal that had eight of the senators, who formed a group with them, cross the aisle to vote and reopen the government.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren called the decision a “terrible mistake”; Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut said it was indefensible; Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who is caucusing with Democrats, said it was a “political disaster.”
And much harsher words were said about the deal on social media, across the political spectrum from people on the center-left, not just among the most progressive.
Make no mistake: bridging the gap will be a daunting challenge. But despite the intense blowback, the end result might not be so bad for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections.
Consider that affordability was the dominant issue in the off-year election, where Democrats won landslide victories. If this is the most important issue next year – and it most likely will be – then Democrats will likely maintain the advantage.
Additionally, if Republicans vote against expanding health care subsidies in December – when a promised vote must take place as part of this shutdown deal – then the Republican will be fully responsible for the resulting increase in health care costs.
Democrats might also be like the adults who took the high road, recognizing the very real pain many people were beginning to feel as President Trump and his administration began to tighten the screws on the most vulnerable.
So Democrats’ biggest challenge heading into next year’s midterm elections may be keeping progressives on their side — and getting them to vote — after what many of them see as the latest display of weakness from a party, as they see it, defined by that weakness.
A democratic vice
The Democrats put themselves in a very difficult position from the start of this fight. Any astute observer could have seen this coming – and realized that the Democrats had only bad options.
Republicans retreated, believing that at least enough Democrats couldn’t bear the pain of millions losing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits, as well as furloughs and layoffs of federal workers.
And they were right.
“Most of us here have repeatedly voted in favor of the Democratic strategy,” said Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine. “But after 40 days, it wasn’t going to work anymore.”
It’s hard to “win” a fight when one side largely cares about whether the government is open and functioning properly and the other thinks the problem is the government.
This combined photo of eight senators facing criticism from the Democratic Party for their agreement to end the government shutdown shows Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Democrat of Nevada, in the top row from left, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, Sen. John Fetterman, Democrat of Pennsylvania, Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., and bottom row from left, Sen. Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, Sen. Jacky. Rosen, D-Nev., and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. (AP Photo)
AP/AP
hide caption
toggle caption
AP/AP
For Kaine and the seven others who joined most Republicans in voting to end the shutdown, a commitment to holding a vote to extend health care subsidies, combined with federal worker protections and SNAP benefits, was enough.
“I don’t think much has been accomplished in the last 40 days other than a lot of chaos and a lot of upheaval,” said Sen. John Fetterman, Democrat of Pennsylvania, who repeatedly voted to end the shutdown.
Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine, who caucus with Democrats and one of three Democrats who also voted to end the shutdown, said bluntly: “It wasn’t working. It’s been six weeks. Republicans have made it clear that they are not going to discuss the issue of health care, the Affordable Care Act tax credits, until the shutdown is over.”
“Waiting another week or month would not yield better results,” said New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. “This would only cause more harm to families in New Hampshire and across the country.”
Not everyone agrees with this reasoning, including Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, a swing state.
“I’ve always said we need to do something concrete on health care,” she said of a deal to reopen the government. “And it’s hard to see how that happened.”
Leadership issues
Democratic leaders were also clearly opposed to the government’s reopening deal.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voted no, although questions arise over whether Schumer authorized senators, who took the vote, to do so.
None of the senators who spoke in favor of the shutdown deal are in imminent political danger, given that they are unlikely to be re-elected next year, and two of them are retiring.
“The overwhelming majority of Senate Democrats, led by Leader Schumer, oppose this bill in the Senate,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Monday.
He noted that the Trump administration’s actions regarding federal workers leave most Democrats “deeply skeptical” of their “intentions.” And when it comes to health care, Republicans, he pointed out, have not acted in “good faith,” given that this is the party that has tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act dozens of times.
“It doesn’t change the core issue,” Jeffries said of the closure agreement. “We must decisively resolve the Republican health care crisis on behalf of working-class Americans, everyday Americans, and middle-class Americans.”
But Schumer already faced significant resistance when he gave up the fight in March and voted to keep government open. And given the party’s tendency to oust older leaders, the shutdown deal could cause problems for the 74-year-old New Yorker as party leader, even if he didn’t vote for it.
A party in flux – from pragmatism to pugilism in the age of Trump
Schumer is certainly not representative of the evolution of the Democratic Party. And the moderates, who signed this agreement, also represent to a large extent the old guard of the party.
To the extent that it depends on how much the Republican Party has changed since Trump took office — and it has very much changed — the Democrats have changed, too.
The Democrats have gone from pragmatism to pugilism. For example, in April 2017, just after the start of his first mandate, a NBC poll found that 6 in 10 Democrats favored compromising with Trump to gain consensus on legislation.
But that completely changed. In March of this year, the last time there was a threat of a shutdown, two-thirds of Democrats said they thought Democrats in Congress should instead stick to their positions, even if that means not getting things done in Washington.
Not all progressives see what happened as a total disaster for the left. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, who is generally a rather pragmatic progressive, sees a glimmer of hope. He called the deal “embarrassing,” but sees progress for the left:
“[T]here’s a difference between the deal itself and what it leaves for Democrats and the broader anti-Trump opposition. This deal shows us that Democrats still don’t have the caucus they need to lead this fight that will continue at least through this decade. But the shutdown also accomplished a lot. And despite the WTF loophole at the 10-yard line, it’s still a radically different huddle than the one we had in March. …Democratic voters must continue to demand more, keep up the pressure, and continue to purge the Senate caucus of senators who are not up to the new reality.”
He also points out that if this deal goes through, there will be another funding deadline at the end of January. At this point, if Democrats don’t get health care expansions or anything else significant, there will be another opportunity for leverage.
Over the next year, there will likely be left-wing primaries as well, and the positioning of the shutdown will be a litmus test for those primaries – and for 2028.
In the meantime, Democratic officials are counting on voters’ short-term memory, because over time, progressives will emerge victorious because of the progress they’ve made in moving the party to a more combative position — and the issue landscape will propel them to victory next year.
And winning heals a lot of divisions.
