Steve Witkoff is brokering an end to the war in Ukraine. How his efforts are going : NPR

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Just to keep track, Steve Witkoff had a meeting on Gaza yesterday. He is expected to hold a meeting on Iran this weekend. And in between those meetings, the president’s envoy is supposed to make progress in this meeting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wow. We called an observer, Dan Baer, ​​director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Good morning.

DAN BAER: Hello.

INSKEEP: I want to talk first about who is leading these negotiations. Do you think you’ve understood Steve Witkoff’s approach to meetings like this over the past year?

BAER: I mean, we’re dealing with a highly personalized foreign policy in that President Trump seems to control everything. There is very little coordination in our agency for foreign policy and the unorthodox reliance on a trusted associate from the real estate world, who has no prior diplomatic experience or regional expertise as some sort of chief diplomat. And he seems to be a specialist in transactions, and that seems to be his approach. He’s juggling, as you said, three precarious issues this week, and that would be a very difficult ask for anyone to take on.

INSKEEP: I’m hanging on to that word, transactions, that you just used because when I’ve followed previous rounds of negotiations, Witkoff seems to have been very open about what he thinks about the transaction. Russia gets territories from Ukraine and everyone leaves happy. This is how Witkoff seems to describe the situation, although Ukraine, of course, really struggles with this formula and Russia never seems interested. Can he bring something more to the deal this time?

BAER: I think it’s going to be incredibly difficult. As Eleanor made clear, Ukrainians are not willing to cede additional territory, and it’s not just because of some sort of emotional attachment to that territory. This is because the territory, the lines exist where they are for a reason. This is because these are defensible lines, and ceding more territory would make the new lines indefensible, posing a real threat to Ukraine. And the real problem is that the challenge that Witkoff is trying to solve cannot be solved right now at the negotiating table, because the real challenge is that Vladimir Putin is not ready for peace. The real problem therefore lies in Moscow. And I think what it’s going to take before Putin is ready for peace is for President Trump to realize that he needs incentives to come to the table in good faith. These incentives could take the form of additional sanctions against Russia, or increased support for Ukraine to increase the costs Russia must pay on the battlefield. But for now, Moscow is not ready for peace, and it is happier: Putin is happy to buy time while continuing this war.

INSKEEP: Because you mentioned sanctions, I want to go back to a little bit of history here. Of course, under Biden, the United States has imposed numerous sanctions on Russia. Congress largely supported this proposal. President Trump has periodically over the past year talked about sanctions, threatened sanctions, perhaps even announced sanctions, but ultimately hasn’t really added pressure on Moscow. Am I right?

BAER: That’s my assessment, yes.

REGISTRATION: OK. So what, if anything, is realistic to expect from these negotiations?

BAER: As I said, Steve, unfortunately – I wish I was more optimistic, but unfortunately I think that until Moscow is ready, until Putin is ready to come to the table and has actually recognized that the war is costing him more than it is giving him – and we have to note that he has reorganized the entire Russian economy around this war. The Russian economy is already under enormous stress, but he has reorganized it around this war. And in a sense, he’s addicted to it because the war is what sustains his regime.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

BAER: Until we change the calculus in his favor, it will be difficult to make progress at the negotiating table. As Eleanor said, he did not accept the idea that Ukraine should have security guarantees, as we saw this week when President Trump asked him for a sign of good faith to avoid attacks. On Monday night, they launched one of the largest attacks in recent memory overnight. SO…

INSKEEP: Yeah.

BAER: …He’s not sending signs that he’s ready.

INSKEEP: Let me ask you about the next meeting that Witkoff is scheduled to attend in Istanbul or perhaps Oman. There is a lot of confusion about exactly where and who will attend. But the idea is for the United States to talk with Iran and possibly find a way out of the threat of a U.S. strike against Iran over its nuclear program, protests and other issues. Do you see a basis on which the two countries could withdraw?

BAER: I suppose there’s a possibility, and it’s hard to know. You know, this latest episode came to a head with the protest that started on December 28, where what – the latest reports are that 30,000 people were killed, and it’s hard to say. He has laid the groundwork now, and so there is a credible military intermediate threat, and that is an advantage for Witkoff as he enters into these negotiations. But Iran and the United States remain far apart on the nuclear program and on Iran’s harmful behavior in the region. It will therefore be difficult to bridge this gap in a single meeting.

INSKEEP: Yeah.

BAER: And the credible threat of a military threat remains, and we know that there are people around President Trump who are probably encouraging military action on the back of what they view as a successful military action last year.

INSKEEP: And I guess we should note that there are many different estimates of casualties. Dan Baer, ​​thank you very much.

BAER: Thanks for inviting me.

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