ROOKE: New Jersey Governor’s Race Heats Up As Polling Gives GOP Candidate Chance To Win
A new poll highlights potential Republican momentum in an open-seat race to replace term-limited New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
The New Jersey gubernatorial election poll released Oct. 28 by Quantus Insights shows Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 3 points (49-46%) among likely voters. it carries considerable weight given the state’s notable shift to the right in the 2024 presidential election. Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli is within the margin of error, making the race far from over.
New Jersey has always been a reliable Democratic stronghold. Former President Joe Biden beat President Donald Trump by about 16 points in 2020. However, Trump was just 6 points away from flipping New Jersey red in his 2024 race against former Vice President Kamala Harris. November’s dramatic shift, coupled with Ciattarelli’s narrow 3-point loss to Murphy in 2021, means the Republican nominee has a strong chance. (Subscribe to Mary Rooke’s weekly newsletter here!)
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL: New Jersey Governor 2025 | Sherrill +3 on Ciattarelli | N=1,380 LV | MoE ±2.6%
Governor (with the skinny ones)
🔵Mikie Sherrill: 49.2%
🔴Jack Ciattarelli: 45.9%
⬜️Others: 2.6%
⬛️ Undecided: 2.4%
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Suitable only
🔵 Sherrill: 31%
🔴… pic.twitter.com/MM5CvdXgkY– Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 28, 2025
While Sherrill is expected to lead Ciatterelli among voters voting by mail, only 20% of voters told Quantus Insights they plan to use this method. Meanwhile, 49 percent of likely voters in New Jersey say they plan to vote in person on Election Day. Among this cohort, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by 21 points.
Despite Sherrill’s overall lead of three points, 53 percent of voters think their neighbors support Ciattarelli. In years past, this generally indicated the possibility of quiet Republican enthusiasm, sometimes called the tepid Trump vote. These voters are less likely to admit to pollsters that they are voting for the Republican candidate, fearing that others will find out, but they ultimately choose him when they vote. (ROOKE: Democrats have embarked on a massive political gamble that even CNN thinks they are losing)
The last time a Republican won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey was 2013, when Chris Christie was elected. If Ciattarelli wins, he could reshape policy on taxes, education and housing in a high-cost state, while emboldening Republicans nationally in blue-leaning areas, ensuring that Trump’s 2024 red wave isn’t a one-off election.
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