Tesla’s robotaxi launch is here: What to expect

After years of daring delays and promises, Tesla is preparing to launch its first Robotaxi service on June 22 in Austin, Texas – although the deployment is much more limited and cautious that the CEO Elon Musk once envisaged.

The launch of the pilot is less a truly autonomous start and plus a closely controlled test with serious investor implications. The deployment will only imply 10 to 20 SEWs of models operating there in a geofized area in Austin, each vehicle carrying a human “safety instructor” on the headquarters of the front passenger. Tesla has also set up a team of teleoperations to supervise the fleet remotely and intervene, if necessary. The service will only be invited to launch, Tesla selecting influencers, investors and customers to participate.

The rides will be available from 6 a.m. to midnight, but robotaxis will not go everywhere: airport trips are prohibited and the routes will avoid complex intersections. The service can also be interrupted in bad weather. The objective, says Tesla, is to gradually advance the program while closely monitoring security – a major concern for regulators and legislators.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is still investigating the Complete Self-Claimed Software (FSD) of Tesla, which was linked to dozens of accidents and at least 13 deaths. Critics argued that Tesla marketing around the FSD has overestimated the capacities of the system, which always require frequent human intervention and do not respond to the standard definition of the autonomous driving industry.

In Texas, state legislators officially asked that Tesla will postpone the launch until the rules governing autonomous vehicle operations take effect on September 1. So far, the company has not indicated that it would delay its deployment.

Musk, who previously declared that Tesla would have 1 million Robotaxis on the road by 2020, admitted that this launch of June will not be entirely autonomous. He described deployment as an early access phase and said that the company was “super paranoid” about security – warning that the date of June 22 could be rejected accordingly. He also teased a separate demonstration for later this month, where a Tesla would behave from the factory to the home of a client by June 28 (if this trip involves a riding hood remains uncertain.)

Wall Street, for its part, looks carefully – and betting big.

The Tesla action has increased by more than 45% since April, partly thanks to the enthusiasm of the Robotaxi and the renewed concentration of Musk on AI. Wedbush analysts predicted that Tesla could extend the Robotaxi service to 25 American cities in a year. Tesla Bull Dan Ives for a long time, director general of Wedbush, said in a note on Friday that “the autonomous era of 1 billion of dollars” of Tesla will start with the launch of Sunday.

“By taking a step back, we consider this autonomous chapter as one of the most important for Musk and Tesla in its history as a business … As we think that the future of AI in Tesla is worth 1 billion of dollars to evaluation alone in the coming years,” wrote Ives. “There are countless skeptics of Tesla Robotaxi’s vision with many bears thinking that this day would never come and now it is Musk and Tesla creating this base of autonomous growth for the coming years and it all starts on Sunday on the sixth street in Austin.”

However, Tesla’s shares are down by almost 24% in the last six months and 16% of years to date, which makes other analysts more skeptical. Some at Barclays and Baird have warned that Tesla’s software is still dragging competitors such as alphabet waymo and Amazon zoox (which already offer entirely driver -free rides in several cities with more mature software batteries) and say that Tesla’s media threshing could create the company for another verification of reality if the early tests.

Tesla’s height is that her approach will finally evolve faster than that of others. Millions of teslas already on the road record miles and feed data at the company’s AI. Tesla uses vision software only, while rivals also count on Lidar and radar sensors and stick to pre-mapped routes, methodically widening, City by City. But the scale does not guarantee autonomy.

Meanwhile, the competition is navigating.

Robotaxy fully driver of Waymo already works in certain parts of Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, without human monitors and millions of real miles to their credit. Zoox tests vehicles specially designed without flight. Cruise, the Autonomous Unit of GM, restarts after a series of security scandals but plans to return to the streets later this year.

Compared to these players, the Robotaxis model of Tesla – with a front baby -sitter – could look more like a beta test than a breakthrough.

However, if Tesla can execute a smooth launch (although modest), this could be the first real point of evidence of Musk’s ambition to pivot the company of a car manufacturer to an AI platform – a change which he described as “transformational” to the evaluation of Tesla. The company bets its future not on the sale of vehicles to drivers, but on the sale of Robotaxi routes to passengers – and data to itself. If it works, Tesla could direct the pack. If this is not the case, it will still be another step missed in a saga that has been stuck in neutral for years.

And on June 22, we will discover what side of the Robotaxie route de Tesla Surgira.