Once-in-a-century ‘super’ El Niño in the cards as ocean temperatures reach near record highs in April
Ocean temperatures hit a near-record monthly high in April as forecasters warn we could be on the cusp of one of the hottest temperatures yet. El Niño events of the century.
El Niño is the warm phase of a multi-year natural weather pattern that increases global temperatures. Forecasters have predicted there is a one in four chance that an unusually strong, or “super,” El Niño could appear this year, with new data suggesting warming El Niño conditions will soon be upon us.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service found that sea surface temperatures in April reflected a transition to El Niño conditions. In the extrapolar global ocean, which encompasses all oceans except the icy Arctic and Antarctic regions, surface temperatures were the second highest on record in April (21 degrees Celsius, or 69.8 degrees Fahrenheit), behind those observed in April 2024 (21.04 C, or 69.87 F) – the warmest April on record.
The last El Niño on Earth ran from June 2023 to April 2024, bringing an additional injection of heat to our already warming world. Both years saw temperature records fall, and 2024 is coming to an end. hottest ever recorded and the first to cross the 1.5°C (2.7°F) warming limit, a key safeguard set by the Paris Agreement before which the effects of climate change become increasingly dire. It should be noted that the 2023/2024 El Niño phenomenon was on the cusp of the “super” threshold.
El Niño is marked by changes in atmospheric and marine temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Of course, the Earth and its oceans are warming anyway due to anthropogenic phenomena. global warmingso the rise in sea surface temperatures last month is due to more than just natural climate phenomena.
“April 2026 adds to the clear signal of lasting global heat”, Samantha Burgessstrategic manager for climate within the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement. statement. “Sea surface temperatures were near record highs with widespread marine heatwaves, Arctic sea ice remained well below average, and Europe experienced sharp contrasts in temperature and precipitation; all hallmarks of a climate increasingly shaped by extremes.”
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña every two to seven years. Each phase tends to last about nine to 12 months, but when they appear and how long they last varies.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recognizes El Niño conditions when the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is 0.5 C (0.9 F) or warmer than the historical average, while wind, surface pressure, and precipitation in the region are also consistent with El Niño conditions.
Last month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announcement that there is a 61% chance that El Niño would emerge between May and July, which would then most likely persist through the end of 2026. The center also gave a one in four (25%) chance that a very strong El Niño (above 2°C or 3.6°F) would emerge during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter, when El Niño conditions typically peak.
NOAA declares El Niño when certain conditions are met.
(Image credit: NOAA Climate.gov)
NOAA is particularly confident in its El Niño forecasts for this time of year, which tend to be less accurate in the spring due to the season’s chaotic weather. However, the tropical Pacific Ocean appears to be move away from La Niña conditions (0.5 C below the historical average), which occurred between September and January, under neutral conditions and towards a potentially strong El Niño.
“If this turns out to be a very strong El Niño, it could be one of the fastest transitions I’ve ever seen – maybe the fastest,” Nathaniel Johnsonresearch meteorologist and member of the ENSO seasonal forecast team at the Climate Prediction Center, told Live Science in a statement. interview published on May 1.
The cause of this year’s potentially supercharged El Niño will be explored after the fact. However, Johnson noted that there are suggestions that climate change could potentially play a role in accelerating El Niño and La Niña fluctuations, although this remains to be confirmed.
“Super El Niño”
Many weather organizations do not recognize the term “super El Niño,” but it is an informal way of saying “very strong El Niño.” Potential impacts of such an event include a decline in fishing, as well as droughts, wildfires and coral bleaching.
The Climate Prediction Center is one of several groups predicting El Niño and the potential for supercharged conditions. The UK Met Office is another, and has said confidence is growing in projections that this upcoming event could be at the upper end of the historical range.
“A ‘super’ El Niño is not a term we subscribe to, but it underpins the fact that it is likely to be a significant event,” Grahame Madge, senior press officer and climate science communicator at the UK Met Office, said in a statement. statement published on April 15. “Scientists tell us this could be the strongest El Niño event this century, comparable to the notable El Niño event of 1998.”
The 1998 event, which began in 1997 and lasted for 13 overlapping three-month periods of NOAA sea surface temperature measurement (between May 1997 and June 1998), saw temperatures rise up to 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) above the historical average, according to NOAA data. The only very strong El Niño this century was of similar magnitude. Between 2015 and 2016, El Niño conditions lasted for 20 overlapping three-month periods and peaked at 2.8°C (5.04°F) above the historical average, according to NOAA. However, the 2015/2016 event was lower than that of 1997/1998 event in the Eastern Pacific.
El Niño typically increases global temperatures by about a fifth of a degree Celsius, according to Madge. This is a temporary increase in addition to global warming which, regardless of its influence on the ENSO cycle, is why our planet is warming.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Carbon File predicted that 2026 will likely be the second warmest year on record, while a strong El Niño developing later this year increases the likelihood that 2027 will be the hottest year on record.
World leaders previously agreed to limit warming preferably below 1.5°C and well below 3.6°F (2°C) in 2015. Paris Agreementa legally binding international treaty. The Paris Agreement concerns temperature anomalies on average over at least 20 yearsSo even though the temperature in 2024 has been above 1.5°C, the limit has technically not yet been exceeded, even though the United Nations Environment Program expects 1.5°C of warming. speed exceeding the climatic threshold of 1.5°C in the next decade.
