Texas Democrats are back. What now?

The Democrats of Texas who left the state To block an effort to rediscover the aggressive GOP ended their two -week upgrading Monday, paving the way for Republicans to pass a Congress card ordered by President Donald Trump.

The return means that Texas House will finally have a quorum when it is Gavels at 1 pm, which it has not achieved for weeks.

The head of the minority of the State Chamber, Gene Wu, which presides over Texas House Democratic Caucus, described the ranging as symbolic.

“We have killed the corrupt special session, resolved unprecedented surveillance and intimidation, and rallied the Democrats nationally to join this existential struggle for fair representation – moving the entire landscape of 2026,” said Wu in a statement. “We return to Texas more dangerous for the plans of the Republicans than when we left. Our return allows us to build the legal file necessary to defeat this racist card before the courts, bring our message to the communities of the State and the country, and inspire the legislators across the country how to fight these non -democratic redistribution systems in their own houses of state. ”

However, not all Democrats have returned. Just as in 2021, when legislators out To block a bill on the abolition of voters, some refuse to return in principle. A member of the State Chamber said The New York Times That the party strength lies in the resistance, without helping the Republicans to secure a quorum for a Gerrymandered card.

With most Democrats in Austin, the Republicans are ready to grow their plan through the room this week. Republicans of the Senate approved their version Last Tuesday, with nine Democrats organizing a ranging before the vote.

The truth is that the discharge would never modify the fundamental political dynamics. Texas Republicans hold power and Democrats do not have the number to stop them.

Once the new card has been promulgated, as expected, the Democrats plan to challenge it in court. The challenges are high: GOP card offered Review Five districts held by Democrats to be more republican before mid-term of 2026, giving Trump Trump’s party to consolidate his majority in the House in what should be a harsh electoral year for them. The Governor of Texas Greg Abbott even threatened To redraw more districts as reprisals for the Democrats, although it is not sure to continue.

But if the Republicans can really mark five new seats remain uncertain.

The new lines target five democratic districts – 9, 28th, 32nd, 34th and 35th – and redraw them in territory more favorable to Republicans. On paper, Trump would have worn The five in 2024 by 10 percentage or more points, which should make them easy victories for the Republicans in 2026.

In practice, it’s more complicated.

Electoral analysts at Silver Bulletin Note that three of these districts – the 9th, 32nd and 35th – were reshaped to include suburban areas that strongly supported Trump in 2024. Under these new borders, Trump would have won an average of 14 points, and he also worn the next cycle in 2020.

The other two, the 28 and 34th, are closer cases. The two are in southern Texas, where Trump outperformed in 2024 even with the old lines. The Republicans have returned to them to be more favorable, but former President Joe Biden brought the two in the 2020 elections.

This makes them less safe for a quick reversal, especially in a potentially National For the GOP.

In other words, Republicans may not sweep as easily as they hope.

The 28th and 34th districts could become red alone in 2028 if the Hispanic voters continue to move to the right, but return them in 2026 will be more difficult. After all, gerrymandering can only do a lot.

Meanwhile, California is preparing to retaliate. State Democrats are go down A plan to redraw your card to compensate for the power capture of the GOP in Texas. California Governor Gavin Newsom is take this effortWith a disclosed democratic map eliminating up to five republican detained seats.

To do this, the Democrats aim to temporarily suspend the independent redistribution commission of California via a voting measure and control of the hands in the legislature.

Newsom highlighted the importance: Democrats, he said, must fight the Gerrymander from Trump’s decade with their own version.

“If California, one of the most unsoponated states in America, does not succeed,” [it’s] at our danger. We cannot recover this ”, Newsom said Meidas Touch. “”[Trump] This is to rig this next mid-term election before launching a vote. He tried to destroy our democracy after the last vote the last time. Now he does it in sight, and we have to focus on the views – focused on the laser – winning, fighting fire with fire. »»

What started as a Texas stop has now become A national competition on redistribution. California provides for a democratic counter-fire. The states led by the Republicans, such as Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio, envisage their own plans.

The two parties develop strategies openly to lock the power before 2026, setting up a fierce tatto-tat for the control of the house. Maybe the Republicans will prevail. But the Democrats do not give up.