Texas GOP Hopes That Latinos Flocking To Trump Could Get Them 5 Seats In Redistricting
The Texas Republicans are betting on the gop gains among Hispanic and Latin American voters in the last elections, seeking to create four majority and Hispanic districts of the State in their proposal for redistribution in mid-December.
On Wednesday, the Republicans unveiled plans for a new Congress map which, if it was adopted, would probably overthrow five democratic seats in the mid -term elections of 2026 – of which four being mainly Hispanic districts of the Congress. President Donald Trump urged the Texas Republicans to redesign the maps of the State Congress before mid-term of 2026 in order to widen the narrow majority of the GOP to the House of Representatives.
“The Republicans have regularly increased their support for Hispanic voters in Texas, so they are undoubtedly convinced that the redistribution could help them to acquire seats”, ” Hans A. Von Spakovsky, MAnager of the initiative to reform the law of elections and main legal member at the Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies de la Heritage Foundation, told Daily Caller News Foundation. “The share of President Trump of their vote in Texas increased from 34% in 2016 to 41% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. It went from a minority of the Hispanic vote to [getting] A majority of votes in just eight years. »»
Trump’s performance in 2024 among Hispanic voters in Texas, according to exit polls, was several percentage points better than its performance among the country and Latinos voters in the country. In addition, Trump’s voting share between Texas’ Hispanics was just a point lower than his share of votes among all the voters of 2024 in the Lone Star State.
During the 2024 elections, 48% of the country’s Hispanics voted for Trump – the most recorded percentage ever registered for a republican presidential candidate – against 36% in the 2020 presidential election, According to a Pew research report published in June. Trump scored 56.3% of the 2024 overall vote in Texas at 42.4% of former vice-president Kamala Harris. (Related: Harry Enen de CNN says that the redistribution of Texas could make a “huge difference” for the mid-term gop)
Austin, Texas – September 05: The outside of Texas State Capitol is seen on September 05, 2023 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Brandon Bell / Getty Images)
“Everything we know about Latin American voters tells us that they are very convincing and that, in the last electoral cycles, have made decisions according to who they believe they respond to their economic concerns and priorities,” said Melissa Morales, president of Somos voting, a group aligned by Democrat who focuses on Latinos, told Politicico.
The Republicans currently hold 25 of the 38 seats in Texas, Trump notably bringing 27 of these districts during the 2024 presidential election, Texas Tribune reported on Wednesday.
Two democrats – both of the moderates Hispanic representing the border districts – won their re -election offers in 2024 in the seats that Trump carried this cycle. Texas Democratic representative Henry Cuellar won the re -election of six points despite Trump who brought his district by seven and the Democrat representative of Texas, Vicente Gonzalez, won less than three points despite the fact that Trump won his five district.
“Republican gains with Hispanic voters in Texas are not only a single cycle phenomenon”, ” Kyle Kondik, editor -in -chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the non -partisan bulletin of the University of Virginie Center for Politics on American campaigns and elections, told DCNF. “In 2020, Trump made significant gains, for example, in southern South Texas, even losing overall [former President] Joe Biden. Four years later, these gains continued. I think that there is certainly the possibility of a return to the Democrats to a certain extent in the context of mid -term 2026 – the non -presidential party often does well in such elections – but in the longer term, there are probably reasonable signs of optimism for republicans with these voters. “”
“Regarding the new card project, I don’t really think that the Republicans even need additional gains with the Latinos to make their maximum gain – it has 30 seats that voted for Trump by 10 points or more, it is therefore designed to elect 5 additional republicans that the current card,” added Kondik. “Now, the presidential result of 2024 in these districts is probably more a big brand of water than a lasting phenomenon of all the elements, and the Democrats do better, for example, in the southern Texas seats than Harris in the presidential race. But I do not think that there are many risks that the Republicans did not spread on this map – maybe they do not take every 30 seats in 2026, but I do not see them worse than the seats do not hold all the seats in 2026, but I do not see them more worse than the 25 year old squares.
The spokesperson for the National Republican Congress Committee (NRCC), Christian Martinez, said in a statement on Thursday provided to the DCNF that “The Hispanic communities are sick and tired that radical democrats turn their back on them repeatedly.”
“They forcefully reject the extreme left agenda that has led to open border years, arrow prices and awakened madness like men in sports for girls,” added Martinez. “Republicans are the party of common sense and Hispanic voters know this.”
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