Texas primaries could test whether Latino support for GOP holds after Trump gains : NPR

A person holds a sign reading “Raise Your Voice: Vote” at an event hosted by BOLD Democrats, a Hispanic PAC, in Houston on Feb. 17. Democrats believe they might have a chance to sway Latino voters who supported President Trump two years ago.

Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

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Elizabeth Conley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

The ongoing primary elections in Texas could provide a first look at whether Latino voters, increasingly influential in national elections, remain loyal to the Republican Party.

These voters played a key role in President Trump’s re-election in 2024 and helped Republicans win in parts of the state where they have historically struggled, primarily along the southern border.

Those gains also played a key role in how Republicans reshaped the state’s congressional lines at Trump’s behest last year. Three of the five seats Republicans won for their party depend on continued support from Latino voters.

Yet there have been signs recently that Latinos in the state, as well as across the country, are beginning to retreat from the Republican Party. And the primaries could give another idea of ​​the current situation of this support.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Latinos are primarily a young population that is expanding Texas’ pool of new voters. And they also constitute a voting bloc that is not systematically aligned with any of the major political parties.

“The Latino electorate has become the largest swing vote in Texas because they are willing to side with either party,” he said, “based on the type of issues presented by the candidates.”

A once-winning question could become a liability

The economy and immigration were key issues that pushed many Texas Latinos to support Trump in 2024. But continued high prices and cost-of-living issues could become a liability for ruling Republicans.

“There’s a sense that Republicans squandered a situation where they were likely to get the Latino vote on their side for several election cycles,” Rottinghaus said.

Daniel Garza works as president of the FREE Initiative to mobilize Latino voters to support conservative candidates. He believes the economy will continue to be the determining factor in these voters’ support.

“This election, like previous elections, will be, if you’re running on one side or the other, all hands on deck. It’s all about the economy,” he said, “about jobs, about opportunity, about inflation, gas prices, energy production, you know, anything that can control health care prices. You know, those kinds of stories, I think, can be really important.”

Garza’s group has worked for years in Texas, as well as across the United States. And he thinks there are enough economic positives that candidates could focus on to bolster their support.

“You see inflation stabilizing,” he said. “You see energy production that’s driven gas prices down, and that’s going to go up. You see interest rates going down to a point where you can now start looking at, you know, owning a home again.”

Will ICE enforcement divide Latino voters?

Rottinghaus, who has surveyed the state’s Latino voters over the years, said the party’s Texas primaries could be an indicator of whether some Latino voters are frustrated enough by the Trump administration’s tough immigration tactics to change their votes this year. He said in particular it would be interesting to see the percentage of voters from Latino communities voting in the Democratic primary versus the Republican primary. Texas has open primaries, meaning any eligible voter can participate in the primary of the party of their choice.

“We are seeing increased Democratic turnout in places and counties where there are significant shares of the Latino electorate,” he said. “It’s a signal to Democrats that they are able to be competitive again.”

Another potential weak point for the Republican Party in Texas is immigration, one of the most important issues facing Latinos in 2024. But Rottinghaus said recent concerns about how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) handles deportations have left many voters “feeling that civil rights and liberties,” as well as “their personal safety,” are in danger.

“It actually created support among Latinos for Donald Trump and for Republicans,” he said.

But Garza is skeptical that the Democratic brand has improved enough among Latino voters in Texas to manifest in a real shift away from Republicans. He said “extreme positions” touted by some Democrats, such as defunding ICE, could maintain support among these Republican Party voters.

“The biggest danger for Democrats, when it comes to the Latino vote, is that Latinos feel comfortable voting for Republicans,” Garza said. “I think it’s put Democrats on their heels in a very real way. And now they’ve had to take positions that appeal to Latinos. And these extreme positions, particularly on… immigration. You’re not going to win them back.”