Texas vs. Purdue prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The 11th-seeded Texas Longhorns take on second-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in a Sweet 16 West Region game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Texas advanced with a 74-68 victory over Gonzaga in Saturday’s second-round game, while Purdue beat Miami (Fla.) 79-69 on Sunday. The Longhorns (21-14), who finished 10th in the SEC at 9-9, have won three in a row. The Boilermakers (29-8), who were tied for sixth in the Big Ten at 13-7, have won six straight, including the Big Ten Tournament title.

News from the SAP Center in San Jose, California is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS. The Longhorns are 2-1 all-time against the Boilermakers. Purdue is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Texas vs. Purdue odds, while the over/under in total points scored is 147.5. The Boilermakers are -389 on the money line (risk $389 to win $100). Before making any Texas vs. Purdue picks, check out the Texas vs. Purdue predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. He entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a torrid 11-1 streak on his top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 streak on the CBB’s top-rated side picks.

Now the model has simulated Texas vs. Purdue 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can now head over to SportsLine to see the model’s choices. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Purdue vs. Texas:

Best Texas vs. Purdue Predictions

After 10,000 Texas vs. Purdue simulations, SportsLine’s model is exceeding the total (147.5 points). The Over has struck in each of the last three head-to-head meetings. The Over has also hit in seven of Purdue’s last 10 games. Texas is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. Purdue, meanwhile, is 3-0 ATS in its last three games.

The model projects that the Longhorns will have four players scoring 13.7 points or more, including Dailyn Swain, who is projected to score 17 points. The Boilermakers should have four players scoring 12.5 points or more, led by Trey Kaufman-Renn, who should score 16.7 points. The model projects a combined 158 points since the total is exceeded in 79.4% of simulations. You can get the broadcast pick on SportsLine.

How to make Purdue vs. Texas picks

Now, the model has simulated every Purdue possession against Texas 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see this pick on SportsLine.

So who does Texas win against Purdue, and which side of the spread reaches more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which way Texas vs. Purdue has spread, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.