The 10 Senate races that will decide the balance of power in 2026
The fight for the Senate expands to a few more states next year, as both parties tout talented candidates and emphasize that political dynamics are tilting in their favor.
Democrats still face an uphill battle to win the four seats they need to take control of the Senate, which would involve winning at least two states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. But they see a glimmer of hope after 2025 election victories and Trump’s declining approval rating, particularly over his handling of the economy.
And Democrats believe they can capitalize on issues like high costs and health care, while Republicans continue to struggle to attract Trump supporters when he’s not on the ballot.
Republicans, however, remain confident that they will retain the Senate – and could even increase their majority., given the GOP’s recent success in states with the most competitive Senate elections next year. And they are optimistic that the party will be able to run on the strength of Trump’s accomplishments, suggesting that voters will begin to reap the benefits of Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending legislation before the vote in November 2026.
Both parties will face potentially divisive and costly primaries, which could further shake up the Senate landscape.
So far, the battle for the Senate majority is taking place around 10 key races. This is what the map looks like.
The main four
It has been clear since the start of the election cycle that the fight for the Senate would center on four crucial states: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state then Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, when the Democrat won Maine by nearly 7 points. Collins is also the only Republican senator from New England and, Republicans say, the only party candidate who could win Maine’s Senate race next year. Collins won re-election in 2020 by 9 points even though Trump lost the state by a similar margin.
Collins has yet to officially launch her campaign, but she said at a recent Punchbowl News event, “I still plan to run for office.”
She won’t know his opponent until June, with Democratic Gov. Janet Mills facing military veteran Graham Platner in the Democratic primary.
Mills presented herself as the candidate best positioned to beat Collins, touting her clashes with Trump and her record as the only Democrat to win a statewide race in Maine in 20 years. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee established a joint fundraising committee with Mills, signaling that party leaders view Mills as the stronger candidate.
Platner, meanwhile, made his case as an anti-establishment and staunch progressive candidate with the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. He said his campaign had been “bolstered” by recent controversies, including revelations that he had a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol, which he has since covered up, and previous posts on Reddit that contained a host of controversial and offensive comments. Platner apologized for numerous posts, saying he was “disillusioned” after his military service.
North Carolina
Both parties believe they have strong recruits to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and this race is expected to be one of the costliest Senate elections next year.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running, while Republicans have tapped former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Both candidates are already in general election mode, although Whatley — who has Trump’s support — mounted a last-minute challenge to Michele Morrow, a far-right candidate who lost her bid for the state’s top education official last year.
Trump was successful in North Carolina, the only battleground the president has won three times, and he won by 3 points last year. But Democrats believe Cooper’s popularity and track record, along with key issues like health care, could paint a North Carolina Senate seat blue for the first time since 2008.
Georgia
Jon Ossoff, the only Senate Democrat running for re-election in a state won by Trump, is the Republicans’ top target next year. The first-term senator raised millions and focused on issues such as health care, the economy and corruption. But Republicans believe they can portray Ossoff as a far-left progressive, highlighting some of his positions on immigration, impeachment and government shutdown.
GOP Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to decline a Senate bid sparked a three-way GOP primary between Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who has Kemp’s backing. Trump, who won Georgia by 2 points in 2024, has yet to weigh in on the primary.
Michigan
The retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has opened the Senate race in this battleground state. Republicans, led by Trump, have coalesced around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a close Senate race last year even as Trump won Michigan by 1 point.
The Democratic primary is a three-way race between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a self-described “pragmatist,” and progressive physician Abdul El-Sayed. The primary has already highlighted divisions over the future of the state’s manufacturing sector and support for Israel, and the candidate’s name won’t be decided until August.
Enlarge map
The Senate battle could extend beyond the four major states, thanks in part to candidates who party lines can push results away from the norm in a few states.
Ohio
Democrats scored a big recruiting victory when former Sen. Sherrod Brown decided to challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed to the Senate after J.D. Vance resigned as vice president.
Brown is widely seen as one of the only Democrats who could compete in the special election to serve the final two years of Vance’s term competitively. The former senator lost his reelection bid by nearly 4 points last year as Trump won Ohio by 11 points.
Agents from both parties say the race is now expected to mobilize significant resources after ad spending in last year’s Senate race reached more than $480 million, according to AdImpact.
New Hampshire
With the retirement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen, both parties view New Hampshire as an open, competitive Senate race next year after Harris wins the Granite State by 3 points.
Senate Republican leaders backed former Sen. John Sununu, who lost to Shaheen in 2008. But Sununu is running in the primary against Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and Trump ambassador, and that nomination fight won’t be resolved until early September.
Rep. Chris Pappas is considered the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary, and Democrats believe his deep ties to the state and proven ability to win competitive races put them in a strong position to fill the seat.
Keep an eye on these races
Other potentially competitive Senate elections in redder or bluer states hinge on the results of contentious primaries — and whether potentially strong candidates decide to run.
Texas
Both parties are navigating hotly contested Senate primaries early next year — although the Republican primary is expected to run beyond March 3, with neither candidate likely to win a majority of the vote given the three-way race between Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
If no one wins a majority of votes in the primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff in May.
All three candidates emphasized their loyalty to Trump during the primary, which has already brought in millions of dollars in ads. That spending comes primarily from Cornyn’s allies, who say he is best positioned to win in a state that Trump won by 14 points last year. So far, Trump is staying away.
The Democratic primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico has become a battle over the best path forward for the party. Crockett took direct aim at Trump and said she could energize a “multi-racial, multi-generational coalition,” including many people who had never voted before, while Talarico said he could appeal to voters in both parties who have a “thirst for sincerity, honesty and compassion.”
Iowa
There is also a contested Democratic primary in Iowa, where Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. State Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, as well as state Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage are all competing for their party’s nomination. Despite Republicans’ recent progress in the state, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, Democrats say the race could be competitive as Iowans grapple with health care access and Trump’s pricing policies.
Republicans, including Trump, quickly coalesced around Rep. Ashley Hinson as their candidate to replace Ernst. Hinson, who flipped a Democratic district in 2020, is considered a rising star in the party.
Alaska
Democrats are waiting to see if former Rep. Mary Peltola, who represented the entire state of Alaska in Congress, will enter the race against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola is also considering a run for governor, after losing re-election last year by 3 points while Trump won Alaska by 13 points.
Sullivan said he recognizes he could have a competitive race, especially as health care emerges as a major issue in the midterms. The two-term senator recently backed a Democratic proposal to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years.
Minnesota
Republicans are waiting for a top candidate in Minnesota, which Trump lost by 4 points last year.
Michele Tafoya, a longtime NFL reporter turned conservative commentator, is considering a run for Senate, according to three sources familiar with her thinking. A source said Tafoya met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier in December and could make a final decision in January. Former professional basketball player Royce White and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are also candidates.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are battling to replace outgoing Sen. Tina Smith, with Flanagan casting herself as the progressive candidate and Craig emphasizing her bipartisan appeal.
