The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches

Washington – The Republicans meet the first headache in the races of the Senate considered essential to maintain the majority of the party in the mid-term elections next year, with recruitment failures, open primaries, intestine struggles and a president who was sits on the sidelines.

Democrats are always faced with a difficult battle. They need to spin four seats to take over the majority, and most of the 2026 competitions are in the states that republican president Donald Trump easily won last November.

But Democrats see reasons of hope in the challenges of the Republicans. They include an unpleasant primary in Texas which could compromise a seat that the Republicans have occupied for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still does not have a clear field of candidates. Trump’s influence composes uncertainty as he decides to flex his influential approval to avoid intraparty fights.

The Republicans underline that he remains at the start of the electoral cycle and say that there is still a lot of time for the candidates to settle and Trump to travel. The president, said that the political director of the White House James Blair, worked closely with the majority leader in the Senate John Thune, Rs.d.

“I should not be ahead of the president, but look at him and the Thune leader were very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work in close collaboration. ” He said.

Trump’s timing, according to the Allies, also reflects the much more disciplined approach to him and his political operation, which are determined to the Republicans to obtain seats in the Senate and the Chamber.

Here is what is happening in certain key races of the Senate:

Democrats have long dreamed of winning an office across the state in this Ruby red state. Could a bad primary of the GOP be their ticket?

The national republicans and the strategists of the GOP Senate sound ringtones among the concerns that the Attorney General of the State Ken Paxton, which faces a multitude of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over Senator John Cornyn for the appointment.

They fear that Paxton will be a candidate in the disastrous general elections, forcing the Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars who, according to them, would be better spent in other states.

The Texans for a conservative majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a Trump OneTime critic, began to broadcast television advertisements last week to promote his support for the Trump tax alternatives and expense discounts.

Do not expect the optimistic tone of the Pro-Cornyn Super Pac for a long time. Paxton was acquitted after an indictment trial led by the Republicans in 2023 for allegations of corruption and abuse, which also exhibited an extramarital case. His wife, Angela, asked for divorce on July 10, referring to “recent discoveries” by announcing her decision to end her 38 -year -old marriage “for biblical reasons”.

“Ken Paxton embarrassed, his family, and we can’t wait to exhibit how much he has embarrassed our state in the coming months,” said Aaron Whitehead, executive director of the Super Pac. Trump advisor Chris Lacivita, who ordered Trump’s campaign in 2024, advises the group.

But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime ally of Trump. And Paxton raised more than three times more than Cornyn in the second quarter, $ 2.9 million against $ 804,000, according to reports from the Federal Elections Commission.

The Wesley Hunt representative also weighs a race.

Will Trump be convinced to approve or choose clearly avoiding?

The surprise announcement of retirement by the senator with two Thom Tillis mandates sparked a frantic research for a replacement in a state widely considered as an opportunity to collect Democrats. He had repeatedly faced Trump, including Medicaid changes in the tax reduction bill, which led the president to threaten to support a main challenger.

All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, who is thinking about her country of origin while other potential candidates are assisted.

A national republican face familiar as co -president of the National Republican Committee during Trump’s campaign in 2024, Lara Trump is now a host of Fox New Chain. She had also been a visible substitution in previous campaigns, often promoting her northern Caroline roots and the fact that she appointed her daughter Carolina.

Having a Trump on the ballot could stimulate a party that had trouble motivating its most fervent base when Donald Trump does not work. But Lara Trump is currently living in Florida and has so far seemed silent on the prospect of a race for the Senate.

The other potential contenders include the president of the RNC, Michael Whatley, who led the Northern Carolina GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong collection of funds and loyalist of Trump, and the representatives of the first mandate. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan graduated from West Point and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.

Democrats are expecting a decision by the former governor with two Roy Cooper mandates, who is considered a formidable candidate by both parties in a Trump state transported by only 3.2 percentage points last year. The former Wiley Nickel representative entered the race, but we don’t know what he would do if Cooper was running.

The Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as one of their best collection opportunities. But the party remains looking for a well -known challenger after failing to persuade the governor limited to terms Brian Kemp to run.

An increasing potential area includes the buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick representatives, the insurance commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former football coach from the University of Tennessee. The president always meets the possible candidates and is expected by a lot of expectations to weigh until his team has fully detected them and evaluated their chances and after his budgetary priorities are furtively frayed through the Congress.

Ossoff collected more than $ 10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal documents, after collecting $ 11 million from January to March. It finished June with more than $ 15.5 million in cash.

This money is certainly an expensive general election. The Senate rushed in 2020, when Ossoff and Raphael Warnock narrowly won and overthrew the control of democrats, cost more than $ 900 million combined.

The Republicans hope that the retirement of the Democratic senator Gary Peters and a crowded and dear democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has escaped them for more than three decades. Here too, all eyes are on Trump.

The Republicans gather around the former representative Mike Rogers, who was produced in the 20,000 votes in 2024 against the time. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump’s approval. Rogers now seems to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the Senate Republican National Committee and former veterans of the Trump Lacivita campaign and Tony Fabrizio.

But other Republicans could complicate things. Representative Bill Huizenga said he was waiting for the President’s advice to find out if he had to introduce himself.

“When people ask why you have not announced or what are you going to do, it’s like, look, I want to get man’s contribution, okay?” Huizenga told journalists last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the Congress member had spoken to Trump on the phone several times and has not yet been said not to appear.

However, the managers of the White House have repeatedly encouraged Huisenga to stay in the house, according to a person familiar with conversations that were not allowed to publicly discuss private discussions and only spoke under the cover of anonymity.

The Democrats have their own disorderly primary, the senator of the Mallory McMorrow state against representative Haley Stevens, the state representative Joe Tate and the former director of health of Wayne, Abdul El-Sayed.

They were delighted to see that, even without any declared challenge, the main account of the Rogers campaign allowed only $ 745,000 in the second quarter, Huizenga and several Democrats. (He reported nearly $ 779,000 through a separate joint committee.) McMoror, in comparison, raised more than $ 2.1 million.

Republican senator Bill Cassidy was the subject of a careful examination of his party, largely for his vote in 2021 to condemn Trump after the president’s second dismissal. Will Trump are asking for reprisals against the senator at two mandates or will ultimately support him?

Although Cassidy is already confronted with two main challengers, Louisiana is a reliably republican state that Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats hope that a solid competitor – potentially former governor John Bel Edwards, who has attracted republican votes in the past – could take up a competitive challenge.

The Republicans are waiting to know if the representative Julia Letlow Courra. In May, Governor Jeff Landry and Trump discussed the MP for two terms in the race.

Letlow and Landry appeared together during a collection of Congress funds for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast district of Louisiana, on June 30, feeding speculations on her plans.

Trump’s discussion with a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the discomfort of Trump’s base with Cassidy, not only on the vote of dismissal, but also Cassidy’s concerns concerning the installation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the country secretary of the country. Cassidy finally supported Kennedy, a movement that some have seen as an effort to mitigate tensions.

Among the Cassidy Republican Challengers, there are so far the treasurer of the State John Fleming and the Senator of the Blake Miguez State. Letlow, serving at the headquarters that her husband held before dying of Covid-19, is considered a rising star in the GOP of Louisiana.

The republican senator with two mandates Joni Ernst did not declare whether she planned to request a third term.

Ernst should win in the state that Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she was criticized by the republicans of Iowa, especially for having said that she had to know more about the choice of Trump for the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his appointment in the midst of allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.

The senator, a veteran of combat and survivor of sexual assault, finally voted to confirm it.

Although a final decision is waiting, Ernst appointed a 2026 campaign director and has planned his annual Iowa fundraising for October.

___ Beaumont reported to monks, Iowa. The writers of the associated press Joey Cappelletti and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.