Replacing 1m petrol cars with EVs could cut Australia’s reliance on foreign fuel by 1bn litres a year | Electric vehicles

Australia could reduce its reliance on foreign fuels by more than a billion liters a year if it replaced a million petrol cars with electric vehicles, as experts say boosting the adoption of electric vehicles is part of ensuring the country’s long-term economic security.

Hussein Dia, professor of transport technology and sustainability at Swinburne University of Technology, said electric vehicles can play a significant role in improving Australia’s energy sovereignty, as well as contributing to the national net zero emissions target.

“Each electric vehicle replacing this vehicle effectively eliminates that fuel demand and shifts energy consumption to electricity, which is largely produced domestically,” Dia said.

“This reduces exposure to global oil price shocks and improves the resilience of the transportation system. We don’t want to experience the same thing every few years.”

A typical gasoline car traveling 15,000 km per year can consume around 1,150 liters of fuel, meaning “even moderate EV penetration can make a noticeable difference,” Dia said.

Replacing a million internal combustion engine cars with electric vehicles will not happen quickly. Today there are only around 420,000 electric vehicles on the road out of a national fleet of around 20 million cars, or around 2%.

Diesel and petrol cars use around 25 billion liters of fuel per year, so replacing half of all vehicles with electric versions would reduce annual consumption by around 12 billion liters.

Dia highlighted that these are examples illustrating the important role that greater adoption of electric vehicles can play in making the country more resilient to future energy shocks.

“These are big asks, but I think if there’s a will, then I think it’s doable,” Dia said.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has triggered a global energy shock that has pushed unleaded petrol prices in major cities on Australia’s east coast to $2.30 per liter, 30 to 40 cents higher in just two weeks, according to MotorMouth.

With diesel prices reaching $2.65 a liter and even higher in regional areas, Alison Reeve, director of the Grattan Institute’s energy and climate change program, said this year’s energy crisis could trigger a major shift in how Australians and policymakers view electric vehicles.

New figures from the Australian Automobile Association show petrol and diesel cars accounted for a record two in three vehicle sales in the final three months of last year, up from 70 per cent in the September quarter.

Gasoline prices in major East Coast cities have increased 15 to 20 percent since the start of the month.

A study of Scandinavian countries found that a 1% increase in gasoline prices was associated with an average 0.85% increase in electric vehicle sales, and that the pace of electric vehicle adoption was much more sensitive to gasoline prices than to electricity costs.

Matt Kean, chair of the Climate Change Authority, said the CCA had indicated transport electrification would reduce emissions and Australians’ exposure to global oil prices.

“Events make this advice more prescient by the day,” Kean said.

“March could see a record month for electric vehicle sales and it would not be surprising to see this momentum continue, as the shockwaves from the Middle East will not be easily forgotten by motorists.”

Against this backdrop, talk of the government potentially reducing incentives for electric vehicles in the next budget comes at the worst time, Reeve said.

“We want to address the problem in a way that we don’t have the same problem in the future,” she said.

“You can be pretty sure there will be geopolitical shocks in the next few years, and they will still affect oil and gasoline prices.”