The Democrats are in ‘shambles.’ Here’s how that could change

Washington – The position of the Democratic Party in public opinion polls has flowed at its lowest point in more than 30 years. Many party voters think that their leaders are not fighting hard enough against President Trump. In an investigation, the words they most often used were “weak” and “lukewarm”.

“The party is in ruins,” said James Carville, the political strategist who helped Bill Clinton win the White House after a similar disarray there is a generation.

And yet, in recent weeks, the besieged party has started to show signs of life.

Its brand is still unpopular, but its chances of winning the elections of the congress of next year seem to increase; In recent polls, the share of voters saying that they planned to vote Democrat reached an advance of around 5% on the GOP. Potential presidential candidates, led by the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom and the Governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker, are in noisy competition for the most ferocious Trump-Fighter title. And they have an ace in the hole: as unloved as the Democratic Party, Trump is also more unpopular, with an approval rating of 40% or less in certain polls.

“There is no requirement that people love the Democratic Party to vote for this,” said Republican survey Patrick Ruffini last week. “At a time of negative partisanry, people are motivated to vote more by not loving the other part than by love for their own.”

So Carville, despite its diagnosis of “mess”, thinks that things are improving in the long term.

“The gift of the Democratic Party seems pretty bad, but I think that its future seems pretty good,” he said. “I think everything will be fine.”

He cited several straws in the wind: the new energy of the Democrats by campaigning against Trump; encouraging survey numbers on next year congress elections; And an impressive bench of emerging leaders.

“The level of talent of the current Democratic Party is the highest I have ever seen,” he said. “Whoever presents himself in addition to this competition will be a fairly strong candidate.”

But this appointment is in three years – and during this time, the Democrats are faced with intimidating obstacles. On the one hand, Trump has pressed Texas and other states led by the Republicans to redraw the Congress cards to cement control of the GOP of the House of Representatives – an effort that could succeed despite Newsom’s attempt to counter it in California.

Governor Gavin Newsom is pushing a measure to redraw the California congress card to help Democrats.

(Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)

Democrats, in comparison, remain without leader and divided – arguing the lessons of their defeat in 2024 and debating in the way of finding their lost support among the voters of the working class.

In a historical sense, the party is going through a familiar test: the struggle to which a party is normally confronted after losing an election.

Carville and other strategists have therefore sketched variations in what you could call a three -step recovery plan: first, get out of Washington and bring together public opposition to Trump. Second, focus their message on “cooking table problems”, mainly the concerns of voters concerning the price increase and an apparently slow economy. Third, organize to win the elections in the House and the Senate next year.

“We have to do well in 2026 to demonstrate that we are not so toxic as people will not vote for us anymore,” said Doug Sosnik, another former Assistant of Clinton.

They argue on the lessons of defeat and the debate of how to resume the lost support among the voters of the working class and minorities.

By fighting Trump, they say they found a starting point.

“We found our foot. We went to the offensive, “said representative Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), who spent most of the summer to campaign across the country. “Trump’s cups in Medicaid and tax lounges for billionaires have given us a message that we can unite.”

They still have a lot of differences on specific policies – but a fiery debate, according to some, is exactly what the party needs.

“The most important task of the Democratic Party is to organize … The most robust debate that Democrats have had in a generation,” said William A. Galston of the Brookings Institution, a former Clinton assistant who maintains that the party must move to the center.

Here is what most of the Democratic leaders agree on: they heard their voters’ requests for a more vigorous struggle against Trump. They agree that they must reconnect with the voters of the working class who do not believe that the party really cares about them. They must launch like a change group, not the status quo. And they must start by regaining control of the House of Representatives next year.

The representative Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) says that the Democrats have “found our foot”.

(Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)

Most Democrats also agree that they have to focus on a positive message on economic issues such as the cost of living – to use the word to this year’s fashion, “affordability”.

But they differ on the details.

Progressives like senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT.) And representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) focused on “fight against the oligarchy”, including higher taxes on rich health insurance managed by the government.

Khanna, a progressive from Silicon Valley, campaigns for a program that he calls “economic patriotism” – essentially, industrial policies to stimulate investments in strategic sectors.

Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, a populist with a frank voice, wants to ensure that capitalism is more for ordinary workers. “Every Latino wants a big ass truck,” he said in an interview with the New York Times. “We are afraid of saying, like:” Hey, let’s help we find a job so that you can become rich. “”

And from the party’s centrist wing, the former chief of staff of Obama, Rahm Emanuel, describes his program as “building, baby, building”, arguing that Democrats should focus on creating affordable and technical and professional housing.

A clearer debate has opened on social and cultural issues: should Democrats break with the identity policy – the things that the Republicans make fun of “alarm clock” – which animates a large part of their progressive wing? Moderate Democrats argue that “ignorance” alienated voters at the center and made it impossible to win the presidential elections.

“I think there is a perception that the Democrats have become so concentrated on the identity that we no longer had a message that could really speak to people at all levels,” said former transport secretary, Pete Buttigieg, at NPR last month.

Controversy on women and transgender girls in female sports has become an early test. Newsom, Buttigieg and Emanuel broke with the left, arguing that there is one case to prohibit transgender women in the competition. “This is a problem of equity,” said Newsom on his podcast in March.

Their statements caused a fierce reaction to LGBTQ +rights defenders. “I will now enter a control plan for witnesses,” joked Emanuel in an interview with the conservative podcaster Megyn Kelly in July.

Other Democrats have a more carefully march. “We have to make a convincing economic vision … Our first, second and third priority,” said Khanna. Meanwhile, say: “We can remain faithful to our values.”

The president of the National Democratic Committee, Ken Martin, was Bunter. “We have to defend each LGBTQ child and their family who want to play sports like any other child,” he said last week.

These battles will take place during the long campaign, already during his first emotions, for the next presidential appointment – the traditional way of American political parties are satisfied with a single message.

“It takes time to a party to get up from the carpet,” said Sosnik, the former strategist of Clinton. “We did not get here during the night. We are not going to get out overnight. ”