The first flying taxis could start operating in 2026 — will this new form of transport actually take off?
Flying cars have long captured the imagination of science fiction writers, and in recent years, many tech startups have raced to make that dream a reality. After a long period of research and development, more optimistic voices in the industry say the launch of air taxi services is imminent – but significant technical, regulatory and economic hurdles could still hinder their takeoff.
The American companies Joby Aviation and Archer have both announced plans to launch air taxi services in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), later this year, which would mark a major milestone in the technology’s winding path to commercialization.
Despite the enduring appeal of this new form of urban mobility and efforts by aviation authorities to lay the regulatory groundwork, experts say they are not yet ready for prime time. Concerns about safety, questions about the financial viability of air taxi services, and the challenges of establishing the infrastructure and operational capacity needed to support an entirely new transportation network mean we could still wait at least a decade for an air alternative to Uber.
Article continues below
“We think large-scale services will be more in the middle of the next decade, not in the near future,” Sergio Cecuttafounder and partner of SMG Consulting, which covers the advanced air mobility sector, told Live Science.
Despite great ambitions, plans to deploy flying taxis have so far failed. For example, there were plans to introduce flying taxis in time for the Paris Olympics in 2024 – but they were scrapped due to delays in vehicle engine certification. At the same time, Archer make plans to introduce flying taxis before the next FIFA World Cup, for flights in Los Angeles. This now appears unlikely, with the company now targeting the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics for the introduction of new passenger services.
However, in recent weeks, the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced the latest phase of its advanced air mobility program How’s it going evaluate air taxi performance in eight separate projects over the summer in 26 states. Does this mean we can expect flying taxis to take flight this year?
Certification challenges
The promise of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft aims to create a quieter, cleaner and more efficient alternative to helicopters. Although designs vary from company to company, they generally rely on distributed electric propulsion (DEP), spreading multiple electric motors and propellers across the airframe to create something more like a drone than a conventional rotorcraft.
Some eVTOLs, like those made by German company Volocopter and Chinese company EHang, feature propellers fixed in a vertical position. But other companies like Joby and Archer are experimenting with propellers that can flip from a vertical to a horizontal position, allowing them to combine vertical takeoff with more efficient forward flight.
Because they are powered by batteries, they could be both greener and quieter than conventional planes. In theory, at least, the increased efficiency and simplicity of electric motors could also make eVTOLs cheaper to build and operate, according to NASA. Promoters This could allow large numbers of these aircraft to be operated in urban areas at an affordable price for more people.
But getting a new class of planes off the ground is not easy. While eVTOL companies have completed hundreds of hours of test flights, starting commercial operations will require them to go through costly certification processes with aviation authorities. These include bodies such as the FAA, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).
While the specifics vary from country to country, it will likely involve about 1,000 hours of test flights overseen by regulators to ensure they can safely perform the types of missions the developers envision, Cecutta said. Given that even the most advanced eVTOL developers have only managed a few hundred hours of test flights, normally on several different aircraft models, he says certification is still a long way off.
“There’s not enough time on this planet to do it in a year,” Cecutta said. “We think certification, even for the most advanced ones, is a deadline of 2027. And for other companies it could be a step towards 2028 or 2029.”
First pilots launched – but technical challenges remain
UAE regulators have pledged to speed up approvals for eVTOLs, but Cecutta suspects it will not be full certification in the traditional sense. Normally, certification allows a plane to fly anywhere under various conditions, but he says the UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) should issue a certificate of airworthiness allowing flights only on highly restricted routes avoiding flying over densely populated areas, such as from Dubai Airport to the resort island of Palm Jumeirah.
While this may provide companies with initial operational experience, the aerospace analyst Bill Sweetmandirector of Valkyrie Strategic Solutions, says this is unlikely to accelerate the wider deployment of the technology. Major aviation authorities generally have agreements whereby certifications are reciprocally recognized between countries. But since the UAE has never certified an aircraft before, it is unlikely to happen here.
In the United States, companies have another way to get their services up and running before full certification. In September 2025, the FAA introduced the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) which will allow uncertified aircraft to operate in controlled environments as part of a series of pilot projects designed to test various use cases for the technology, including air taxi services.
But Cecutta emphasizes that this is unlikely to accelerate the widespread deployment of the technology. The program is designed to help companies gain operational experience so they can launch commercial services more quickly after certification, but it will not speed up the certification process itself.
There may also be significant speed bumps in the effort to prove the airworthiness of these vehicles. Richard Brownaerodynamics consultant at Sophrodyne Aerospace in Scotland, says eVTOL operations present technical complexities that many in the industry have been reluctant to fully address.
One of the biggest concerns is what happens when these multirotor aircraft interact with the ground. Research conducted by Brown for CAA found that the downward airflow from eVTOL rotors can create highly concentrated airflows that travel considerable distances through the ground with surprising force. This could damage surrounding infrastructure or even send people flying unexpectedly.
Brown suggests that the company’s eVTOL modeling focuses on average airflow rates and fails to capture these dynamics. But the phenomenon could limit where these planes can operate safely and the type of infrastructure they will need.
Even more worrisome, he says, is the risk of a vortex ring condition, a dangerous aerodynamic condition that can cause the rotors to suddenly lose thrust. This is already a major safety issue for helicopters, which suffer vortex ring accidents every year, he adds, but eVTOL designs with multiple interacting rotors may be even more susceptible to these effects.
Facing hard economic truths
Even if startups overcome technical hurdles, important questions remain about their economic viability. Although eVTOLs are likely cheaper to operate than conventional aircraft — because electric propulsion is inherently more efficient and less prone to failure — they will likely be considerably more expensive to purchase for the foreseeable future, Cecutta said.
Costs will fall as companies increase production, and plans to enable autonomous flight could remove the considerable costs of training and employing pilots, he adds. But it will take time, and Cecutta estimates it could be a decade before eVTOL services become a transportation option for middle-class passengers, rather than the ultra-wealthy.
Sweetman is more skeptical about whether eVTOL operations will ever reach the scale required to significantly reduce costs – with costs per vehicle falling as more vehicles are manufactured. He questions whether urban airspace can safely accommodate the hundreds or thousands of planes needed to make the economic case compelling.
And long-term operational costs could be considerably higher than many suggest. Unlike electric cars, which consume energy relatively consistently, eVTOLs subject their batteries to very high discharge rates during takeoff and landing.
“You beat the drums,” Sweetman said. He points to regulatory filings from U.S. eVTOL developer Beta Technologies that suggested they would have to replace their planes’ batteries every year, a cost that was “enough to destroy the economy alone.”
In the near term, cargo operations and emergency medical services could prove a more viable use case for eVTOL aircraft than air taxi services, according to Cecutta. These applications do not require flying over dense populations and face fewer barriers to public acceptance than large-scale urban transportation networks. Many eVTOL companies are also moving into defense applications, he adds, where they can tap into the deepest pockets of military customers.
These applications could provide financial breathing room for eVTOL manufacturers to continue developing their technology, Cecutta said. Despite wild projections that flying taxi services could begin this year, for flying taxis to truly take off in any meaningful way, the industry still faces years of work, with no guarantee that all the pieces will ultimately come together.
