The Iran War Spreads to Lebanon
On Tuesday, Israeli ground troops invaded the border. (Israeli forces already occupy five positions captured in the previous war, in addition to other southern territories they have occupied for decades.) The Lebanese army, which is supplied by the United States, is not allowed to engage Israel except in self-defense; he withdrew some troops from the region. The next day, Israel issued evacuation orders for dozens of villages south of the Litani River, an area extending about 30 kilometers from the border. On Thursday, that prompted an unprecedented evacuation notice for Beirut’s southern suburbs, a densely populated area home to hundreds of thousands of people. (Previous advisories pointed to specific structures, not entire areas.) As the drones circled overhead, messages spread on WhatsApp, warning people to open their windows so they wouldn’t be shattered by the explosions. The city fell into chaos as panicked residents fled. Hours later, another forced evacuation order was issued for several towns in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. More than ninety thousand Lebanese have already been displaced. At least a hundred were killed.
The Lebanese front is unleashed into a wider war across the Middle East. After the United States and Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites last June, Iran offered a performative response: It struck U.S. bases only after giving enough warning that they would be evacuated first. This time, Iran said there were “no red lines.” Even though many Iranian leaders have been killed, the regime remains intact, with no visible defections. The assassination of Khamenei, an octogenarian whose ideology considers martyrdom a religious reward, galvanized his supporters. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said his country would not negotiate. Tehran began retaliating against Israel and the United States, striking bases and facilities in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan and elsewhere. US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been hit by drones. The Dubai consulate too. Air warning sirens sound throughout the region.
Although Hezbollah is defeated after the previous war with Israel, it remains the vanguard of an axis of resistance that includes Yemen’s Houthis, Palestinian groups and many Iraqi militias. An Iraqi militia commander who recently attended meetings in Tehran told me that the Iranians were ready for a “very long war,” for which they had “prepared calmly and thoroughly.” In recent days, some Iraqi armed factions have launched attacks against U.S. interests – in Iraq and, depending on the group, in Kuwait and Jordan. The militias suffered losses during counterattacks. Like other Axis forces, many Iraqi militias have been weakened since the start of the Gaza war, but the commander told me that the “circle of resistance” widens with each new escalation.
The Iraqi state is acting cautiously. He condemned attacks on Iran and on Iraqi militias; at the same time, he asked the Iraqi armed factions to refrain from any strikes without state orders. Baghdad fears that instability in Iran, one of its main trading partners, could have devastating economic effects. Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major channel for oil shipments, which funds most of Iraq’s national budget. Yemen’s Houthis also retain the possibility of retaking their seat on shipping in the Red Sea. Oil prices and transportation costs are increasing.
Iran faces what is widely considered the world’s most powerful military, alongside Israel’s technologically advanced forces; France, Germany and the United Kingdom have indicated they may also join the campaign. But small, agile forces can still inflict damage, especially in battles they view as existential. Tehran’s strikes are already depleting Washington’s reserves of air defense interceptors. On Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio lamented that in one month Iran could produce more than a hundred ballistic missiles and deploy thousands of drones; at the same time, the United States can only deliver six or seven interceptor units.
On Tuesday, Hezbollah amplified its campaign by launching drones and rockets at military sites in Israel and at Israeli Merkava tanks that entered Lebanon. He also said he shot down a drone. Israel Katz, Israel’s Defense Minister, announced that he had ordered his army to seize additional positions in southern Lebanon. On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem made his first televised remarks since the front reopened. He said Hezbollah’s weapons were not up for debate. He urged the Lebanese people “not to stab the resistance in the back during a period of confrontation and war,” but to unite and “prioritize confronting this enemy. After that, we can discuss our other issues.”
