Trump’s Iran war deepens the GOP’s midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explores how the war in Iran is further dimming Republicans’ prospects in this fall’s elections. Plus, we delve into President Donald Trump’s feud with the Pope.

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—Adam Wollner

Trump’s war on Iran deepens GOP midterm challenges

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

Congress returns to Washington today after a two-week Easter recess and a growing to-do list, including a confrontation over the war in Iran that has implications for the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans have already rejected Democratic proposals to end the war. Now Senate Minority Leader Chuck SchumerDN.Y., vows to force another vote this week to arrest president Donald Trump to take military action unless it first obtains approval from Congress.

For many Republican lawmakers, it’s not an easy vote. The war has sparked a backlash in American public opinion that threatens to shift the political environment further away from the Republican side.

In addition to the deployment of military assets and personnel as well as the number of deaths, the war had economic fallout: Iran responded to the US-Israeli strikes by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes.

The price of gasoline at the pump has increased significantly for ordinary Americans. There are also threats to farmers and food security: rising diesel prices are disrupting supply chains and fertilizer prices are rising as up to 30% of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Americans give Trump an overall negative verdict on the Iran war, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll conducted April 8-10.

• 36% approve of Trump’s handling of the situation in Iran, while 64% disapprove.
• 60% disapprove of US military action in Iran, while 40% approve.
• 59% believe that the military conflict with Iran is going badly for the United States, while 41% believe it is going well.
• 66% say the administration has not clearly explained U.S. goals in the Iran war, while 34% say it has.
• 59% say they do not trust Trump to make the right decisions regarding Iran, while 41% say they have confidence.
• 62% say Trump “does not have a clear plan” for the Iran war, while 38% say he does.

For now, as U.S. attempts to reach a peace deal with Iran fail, Trump is working to challenge Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz by sending the U.S. Navy to the region. Experts in the region warn that Iran has asymmetric advantages that allow it to cheaply blow up ships carrying millions of dollars of oil, making it difficult for the United States or anyone else to guarantee safe passage. The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war and represents one of Iran’s main avenues of revenge.

Meanwhile, Trump was less than reassuring when asked yesterday on Fox News whether the price of oil would fall before the midterm elections.

“I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be, or the same thing, or maybe a little higher,” Trump told his host. Maria Bartiromo. “But it should be about the same. I don’t think it will last very long.”

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➡️ More for subscribers:

• How JD Vance, Skeptical of Trump’s War on Iran, Came to Lead the Peace Talks, by Jonathan Allen and Henry J. Gomez
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Trump against the Pope

Pope Leo XIV hit back at the president Donald Trump He sharply criticized America’s first leader of the Catholic Church, calling him “WEAK on crime” and “terrible on foreign policy,” report Claudio Lavanga, Tara Prindiville and Raquel Coronell Uribe.

Leo, who has been particularly outspoken in his criticism of the U.S. and Israel-led war on Iran, told NBC News he has “no fear of the Trump administration” and pledged to uphold his calls for peace, which he said were rooted in the gospel.

Trump voiced his criticism of the pope in remarks to reporters and on social media.

“I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime, I guess,” the president told NBC News last night at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. “I’m not a big fan of Pope Leo,” Trump added.

Message #2: Trump separately posted a photo last night portraying himself as a Christ-like savior that was later deleted from his Truth Social account, Megan Lebowitz and Gabe Gutierrez report.

The post sparked controversy from several high-profile conservatives, including former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greenea Trump ally turned critic.

“This is beyond blasphemy,” she said on X, in reaction to Trump’s message. “It is an antichrist spirit.”

When asked by a reporter if he posted the photo, Trump responded, “I posted it and I thought it was me as a doctor and it had to do with the Red Cross.” »

“Only fake news could come up with that one, so I heard about it and I asked, ‘How did they come up with that?'” Trump said of the comparisons between the image and Jesus. “It’s supposed to be me as the doctor.”

The religious vote: Both episodes could test Trump’s relationship with a key part of his base at a time when his overall poll numbers are sagging. Catholic voters voted for Trump 55% to 43% in the 2024 election after splitting between him and Joe Biden in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. Among Protestants, 62% voted for Trump in the last election, including 81% of white evangelicals.

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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