The reason for Italy’s ‘demographic winter’ | Fertility problems

The Italian “demographic winter” has several causes, but the increase in male infertility is not one of them (A child is born: Italians celebrate the first village baby in 30 years, December 26).

Some studies have raised widespread concerns about declining sperm counts, but a more recent meta-analysis found, through the inclusion of regional controls, a increase In the United States, sperm counts are declining between 1970 and 2018. Sperm counts may be declining in places like China’s Henan province, where air and water pollution are significant, but there is little evidence of declining sperm counts in developed countries.

In 2024, the Pew Research Center asked women and men over 50 who had never had children why they hadn’t. About a third (31%) didn’t want it, but the most prolific reasons included “it just never happened” (39%) and “I couldn’t find the right partner” (33%). Since 1980, the Italian maternity rate has fallen from 77% to 60%, accounting for 77% of the decline in the Italian fertility rate over this period (calculated using a microdemographic framework and Istat fertility data). The demographic winter is mainly due to the decline in the number of people becoming parents, mainly due to the fact that life milestones, including romantic ones, are not reached on time.
Peter Foreshaw Brookes
Director, The Center for Family and Education