Fantasy Football Week 1 Tight End Preview: Projections, numbers to know, and more

At the other positions, this week is all about how Week 1 projections look different than season-long rankings. At tight end, that may be pretty obvious. Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland were rookies we pushed up in the season-long rankings because of their upside, not because of their Week 1 projection. That’s why I generally suggested drafting one of Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, or Jake Ferguson to pair with them. At the same time, low-end tight ends are such low scorers, I wouldn’t necessarily say you can’t start Loveland or Warren this week. Just know that you don’t have much floor in their debuts. The positive for Warren is his offense has an implied total of 24 points, which is an edge over the Bears’ 21.5.

One of the most disturbing implied totals of the week is the Detroit Lions. It’s not that 22.5 is so low. It’s that the Lions averaged 33 points per game last year and only scored below 23 points twice. Micah Parsons has something to do with this, but it’s more an expression of the reality that there is likely touchdown regression coming in Detroit. That would be a big problem for Sam LaPorta, whose best Fantasy attribute has been getting into the end zone. With increased target competition from Jameson Williams, I thought LaPorta was being drafted too early all summer, and in the Week 1 projections, he comes out at TE10.

Here’s everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:

Week 1 TE Preview

• 4.1 — Mark Andrews averaged 4.1 targets per game last year, his lowest mark since his rookie year. If Isaiah Likely misses Week 1, Andrews’ target share should benefit.
• 8.5 — Tucker Kraft has averaged 8.5 yards after catch per reception. I would say that’s George Kittle like, but it is actually better than Kittle. If he sees even a small increase in targets, he could sneak into the top 5 tight ends.
• 1.4% — Trey McBride had a laughably bad touchdown rate last year. It could be four times higher this year, and it still wouldn’t stand out amongst good tight ends. If that happens and his targets stay steady, McBride could be worth a Round 1 pick.
• 6 — Rashee Rice is out for the first six games of the season. Travis Kelce is a must-start tight end for at least that long, don’t even think about it.
• 13.4% — The Broncos tight end target rate was 13.4% last year, the third-lowest mark in the league. We expect that to change with Evan Engram in town, but if his targets are low in Week 1, it will be reason for alarm.
• 21 — Zach Ertz had 21 red zone targets last year, second only to Kelce at the position. He’s a Week 1 starter for me.
• 18.5 — David Njoku averaged 18.5 PPR FPPG in five games with Joe Flacco in 2023.

My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.