Australia won’t receive Aukus nuclear submarines unless US doubles shipbuilding, admiral warns | Aukus

The United States cannot sell any Virginia class nuclear submarine in Australia without double its production rate, as it does too few people for its own defense, the naval candidate told operations chief told Congress.

There are “no magic beans” to stimulate the capacity of sclerotic naval construction in the United States, said Admiral Daryl Caudle in frank evidence before a senatorial committee.

The US underwater fleet numbers are a quarter less than its objective, according to US government figures, and the country produces boats to just over half of the rate it needs to meet its own defense requirements.

Before the senatorial committee of armed services as part of its confirmation process to serve as the next head of naval operations, Caudle praised the sailors of the Royal Australian Navy as “incredible submarines”, but said that the United States could not sell them boats – as being engaged under the Aukus Pact – without “100%improvement” on shipbuilding rates.

The American navy believes that it must build Virginia class submarines at a rate of 2.00 per year to meet its own defense requirements, and approximately 2.33 to have enough boats to sell them to Australia. He currently builds Virginia class submarines at a rate of approximately 1.13 per year, say senior admirals.

“Australia’s ability to carry out an underwater war is not in question,” said Caudle, “but as you know, the rhythm of delivery is not what it must be to make the pillar one of the Aukus agreements which is currently being examined by our Ministry of Defense”.

Caudle said that efficiency gains or marginal improvements would not be sufficient to “do good on the real pact that we have done with the United Kingdom and Australia, which is … around 2.2 to 2.3 Virginia class submarines per year”.

“This will require a processing improvement; not an improvement of 10%, not an improvement of 20%but an improvement of 100%,” he said.

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Under the pillar one of the Aukus agreement, Australia should buy between three and five nuclear class submarines of Virginia in the United States, from 2032.

The United Kingdom will build the first Akus class submarine for its navy by “the late 2030s”. Australian Aukus’s first Aukus boat will be in the water “in the early 2040s”. Aukus is expected to cost Australia up to $ 368 billion over 30 years.

The United States’s goodwill to Australia, or the importation of the American alliance, would not be relevant to any decision to sell submarines: Aukus legislation prohibits the United States from selling Australia any submarine if that would weaken American naval force.

Australia has already paid $ 1.6 billion out of an expected total of $ 4.7 billion (US $ 3 billion) to help the United States increase its naval construction industry.

But the United States itself has paid money into its shipyards, without significant effect.

A joint declaration on “the state of nuclear naval construction” published by three admirals from the counter-back in April noted that if the congress had committed an additional $ 5.7 billion to increase wages and productivity of shipyards, “we have not observed the production rates of submarines of the Columbia and Virginia class”.

Caudle, himself a career submarine, said the United States would need “creativity, ingenuity and some improvements in outsourcing” if it should respond to its naval construction requests and produce 2.3 Virginia class ships per year.

“There are no magic beans for that,” he told the Senate’s hearing. “There is nothing that will simply get there. So the solution space must open.”

“Why is there not a plan B?”

Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who reported Caudle’s testimony to the Senate, told The Guardian that there was “no shortage of goodwill towards Australia” of the United States in relation to Aukus, but that the realities of a lack of submarines meant that there was a “very, very high” probability that the submarines Australian control.

Turnbull said that the language from the American navy “supervised expectations in a realistic way”, saying essentially that, without dramatic reform, the United States could not sell any of its Virginia class boats. With the Collins class approaching the end of their service life, and the underwater design of Aukus and the construction of delays against the United Kingdom, Australia could be left without any underwater capacity for a decade, potentially two, said Turnbull.

“The risk that we do not get any Virginia class submarines is – objectively – very, very high. The real question is why the government does not recognize that … and why is there not a plan B? What are they doing to acquire alternative capacities in case of Virginias do not arrive? ”

Turnbull – which, as Prime Minister, had signed the agreement of diesel -electric submarine with the French giant navy which was unilaterally abandoned in favor of the Aukus agreement in 2021 – argued that the Australian government, the Parliament and the media had failed to question the agreement on the Aukus.

“When you compare the franchise and the details of the disclosure that the American Congress obtains from the Marine Department, and the toes that we get here, is a shame. Our parliament has the most, but is the least curious and the least informed.

Friday, the Minister of Defense, Richard Marles, told journalists in Sydney “the work on Aukus continues in Apace”.

“We continue to work very closely … with the United States in the progression of the optimal path to Australia to acquire a capacity of nuclear propulsion submarine,” he said.

“With regard to the production and maintenance calendar in the United States, we continue to make our financial contributions to this industrial basis.”

Marles cited $ 1.6 billion paid in the United States to increase its naval construction industry this year, with other payments to come, and said that 120 Australian professional spaces are currently working on the maintenance of Virginie class submarines in Pearl Harbor.

“All this work continues and we are really convinced that the production rates will be raised in America, which is part of Aukus’ ambition.”

The Guardian asked a series of questions at the Marles office on the testimony of the Caudle Senate.