Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction, odds, spread: 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl picks from proven model

The 23rd-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will face Diego Pavia and the 14th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores in the 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Iowa closed out the regular season with a 40-16 victory at Nebraska on November 28, while Vanderbilt posted a 45-24 victory over Tennessee on November 29. The Hawkeyes (8-4), who finished sixth in the Big Ten, are 0-4 against ranked opponents this season. The Commodores (10-2), tied for fifth in the SEC, are 4-2 against ranked opponents in 2025. The Hawkeyes should have nearly their full roster. Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers, a Mackey Award winner, has opted out and will skip the game.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida will be at noon ET. This will be the first meeting between the schools. The Commodores are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Vanderbilt vs. Iowa odds, while the over/under on total points scored is 46.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Iowa vs. Vanderbilt picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it ranks 31-19 among its highest-rated college football money-line picks since the start of the 2024 season.

Now the model has set its sights on Iowa vs. Vanderbilt. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt:

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How to make Iowa vs. Vanderbilt picks

After 10,000 simulations, the SportsLine model is exceeding (46.5) out of the total. The Over has struck in five of Iowa’s last 10 games, including one spurt. The Over is 7-3 in Vanderbilt’s last 10 games.

The model has Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski passing for over 180 yards and two touchdowns, while Pavie will throw for over 210 yards and rush for over 50 with two combined touchdowns. The teams are expected to combine for 53 points as the Over emerges in nearly 60% of simulations.

The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits more than 60% of the time. You can see the model choice on SportsLine.

So who does Vanderbilt win against Iowa, and which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Iowa vs. Vanderbilt spread to jump to, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.