The signs of a blue wave aren’t there like they were in Trump’s first term: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the political officea newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki explains why a blue wave doesn’t appear to be materializing (yet) for Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. Additionally, the government shutdown extends for a seventh day.
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—Adam Wollner
The signs of a blue wave are not there like they were during Trump’s first term
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
The blue wave that interrupted President Donald Trump’s first term could be seen coming from afar. This time, the signs are not as clear.
By the fall of 2017, Trump’s first year in office, Democrats had gained a considerable advantage in the congressional generic vote. On this day in 2017, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, the Democratic lead was 7.8 points. It’s a margin that would more or less hold over the next year, culminating in a 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms that gave Democrats control of the House.
Today, on the other hand, the RCP average advances the Democrats by only 3 points in the generic vote. This comes even as Trump’s overall job approval rating sits between 45 and 55 percent — the same as during his first term — and he continues to rack up negative marks for his handling of the economy and inflation.
The views of the opposition to Trump, however, are very different today than they were eight years ago. Heading into the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats performed consistently – and significantly – better than Republicans in terms of party image. This time, it’s a different story.
Earlier this year, Democrats recorded their lowest positive rating in the history of our NBC News poll, which dates back more than three decades. Similar results have emerged in other investigations.
One important factor is that self-identified Democrats express unfavorable views toward their own party. This internal frustration — combined with other data showing that these voters want a more confrontational attitude from their party’s leaders — helps explain why Washington Democrats have embraced a government shutdown.
It also raises the question of what other new tactical or ideological steps Democratic leaders might take to appease their base — and whether the broader electorate will be receptive to them. During Trump’s first term, independents had a less negative view of Democrats than Republicans. Now it’s more of a wash.
Of course, to win back the House next year, Democrats don’t need a wave; a net gain of just three seats would be enough. But Republicans could end up boosting that number to high single digits through redistricting efforts in the middle of the decade.
Typically, the opposition party can count on a midterm boost by serving as a protest vehicle for any discontent voters wish to express with the White House. But in the current atmosphere of intense polarization, some voters may also want to express their dissatisfaction with the opposition party.
Shutdown, Day 7: Trump ratchets up the pressure as MTG breaks with his party on Obamacare
The White House raised the stakes on the government shutdown as it entered its seventh day with a draft memo arguing that furloughed federal workers are not entitled to back pay, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told NBC News.
The memo, first reported by Axios, comes despite the Office of Personnel Management’s own guidance from September that federal workers will receive retroactive pay after the shutdown is lifted.
The memo also conflicts with a 2019 law that requires back pay for federal workers. The law, called the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, states that all federal employees, whether furloughed or deemed essential and working without pay, must receive back pay after a shutdown ends.
Asked about the White House’s position on back pay, President Donald Trump told reporters: “I would say it depends on who we’re talking to.” » Trump also compared the shutdown to a “kamikaze attack” by Democrats.
The idea of refusing back pay sparked backlash within the party, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., calling it a “horrible message” and a “bad strategy.”
Speaking of the GOP’s divisions: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., broke with her party by calling for action on the expiration of Obamacare subsidies to avoid premium hikes, Sahil Kapur reports.
In a lengthy article on
“Let’s put it as nicely as possible, I’m not a fan,” she wrote. “But I’m going to go against everyone on this issue, because when the tax credits expire this year, my own adult child insurance premiums for 2026 will DOUBLE, along with those of all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district.”
“Not a single Republican has talked to us about this or presented us with a plan to help Americans deal with DOUBLE their health insurance premiums!!!” » added Greene.
Asked by our colleague Ryan Nobles about Greene’s comments, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said she doesn’t serve on jurisdictional committees and “probably hasn’t read some of this information.” He added that “everyone is entitled to their opinion,” but “not everyone knows everything.”
At the airport: Flight delays across the United States extended to a second day as the Federal Aviation Administration prepared for more staffing shortages at airports due to the shutdown, write Matt Lavietes and Corky Siemaszko.
Maya Rosenberg and Jay Blackman also note that federal funding for air transportation in rural areas will run out on Sunday if the shutdown continues.
In the states: Some governors are dipping into state funds to keep popular national parks open to tourists, Raquel Coronell Uribe reports.
🗞️ Other news of the day
- ⚖️SCOTUS Watch: The Supreme Court appeared poised to uphold a free speech challenge to a Colorado law that bans conversion therapy for young people questioning their sexual orientation or gender identity in a case likely to have national implications. Read more →
- 🪑 In the hot seat: Attorney General Pam Bondi was questioned by senators about National Guard deployments and immigrant arrests in U.S. cities, the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey and records related to Jeffrey Epstein. Read more →
- 🇨🇦 Oh, Canada: Trump said there was “mutual love” but “natural conflict” between the United States and Canada during his meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House. Read more →
- 📱 Sprint until November: In the final weeks of Virginia’s gubernatorial race, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears is attempting to link Democrat Abigail Spanberger to the uproar over violent texts from the Democratic nominee for state attorney general. Read more →
- 🗳️ If it’s Tuesday: Voters are heading to the polls for a special primary election to fill former Rep. Mark Green’s seat in Tennessee’s deep-red 7th District. Trump intervened at the last minute with the support of Matt Van Epps, the former commissioner of the State Department of General Services. Read more →
- ➡️ Explanation: Trump repeatedly suggested this week that he could invoke the broad presidential powers granted by the Insurrection Act “if necessary.” This is what it is →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.
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