UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown predictions, fight card, odds, start time

Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown took very different paths to their first UFC Fight Night main event. Bonfim is a relatively new addition to the UFC roster; Meanwhile, Brown celebrates a decade with the promotion in January. They face off Saturday night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Bonfim (18-1) defends his ranking, but undoubtedly has more to prove than his opponent. Bonfim became a top 15 welterweight with a controversial decision victory over longtime competitor Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Two years ago, almost to the day, he was eliminated by Nicolas Dalby. A close decision win over Brown, an unranked fighter approaching 10 years in the promotion, won’t do him much good. Bonfim needs an exceptional performance.

“If I let Brown control the distance and keep the fight going, he has an advantage, that’s his game. But not with me,” Bonfim told CBS Sports through a Portuguese interpreter. “I’m very comfortable trading punches. I know he’s scared and tired of my ground game.”

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Brown (20-6) is determined to make the most of his first main event. He’s a promising contender, but every time he gains momentum, his momentum is stopped by guys like Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Vicente Luque. But all this experience allowed him to keep a cool head. Brown is coming off a knockout victory over Dalby, the only person to beat Bonfim, but he doesn’t think much of it. Brown knows exactly what Bonfim did wrong, but he can’t guarantee he’ll make those mistakes again.

“I know exactly why he lost that fight and what happened. I can’t assume he’s in the same place. He was pushed, overwhelmed, tired and stopped…” Brown told CBS Sports. “I can’t count on him to make the same mistakes. As far as I know, he’s in the best shape of his life, and when he shows up, he’ll be ready to go 10 rounds.”

There’s not much to write about the undercard. Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos is solid matchmaking. Neither fighter is currently ranked, but they are veteran fighters who have mixed with the best. Simon notably holds a controversial victory over reigning UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and fought former WEC champion Urijah Faber. Barcelos has mixed the title with title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov in recent years.

Rising flyweights are slated for the co-main event when Joseph Morales takes on Matt Schnell. Morales just won The Ultimate Fighter 33 in August with a submission of Alibi Idiris in August. He previously competed in the UFC in 2017 and 2018 before three years of inactivity. He posted a 1-2 record during that span, including a TKO loss to former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Schnell, meanwhile, has been a fixture since 2016 where he posted a 7-7, 1 NC record. He ended a three-game losing streak in April with a decision victory over Jimmy Flick.

Below is the rest of Saturday’s fight card, with the latest odds before we reach a prediction and pick the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night Viewing Information

Date: November 8 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex – Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown: Don’t let Bonfim’s ranking fool you; he has something to prove. Many believe that “Wonderboy” beat Bonfim. Dalby knocked him out. They were Bonfim’s two most experienced opponents. Brown is another such veteran, having faced world-class competition for over a decade. He’s fully capable of exploiting every hole Bonfim gives him, especially if he weakens in five rounds. In terms of skills, I lean towards Bonfim. He has fantastic submissions, judicious wrestling, and responsible striking defense. Thompson totally outplayed Bonfim, but their significant strike results were almost identical.

Last year, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos defeated Brown four times. The year before, Della Maddalena had submitted Brown – one of only two submission victories during the champion’s 20-fight professional career. There are conditions we should recognize in these two fights: Brown still beat Dos Santos and Della Maddalena locked in the rear naked choke after a knockdown. The fight benefits Brown the longer it lasts. Ultimately, Bonfim shines more where Brown struggles. The reverse is not as true. I will take Bonfim, with hesitation, by submission. Bonfim via SUB2