NOAA predicts quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026—but the Pacific is another story
May 21, 2026
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NOAA predicts a quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, but the Pacific is a different story
The El Niño phenomenon expected this year could slow down hurricanes in the Atlantic but worsen them in the central and eastern Pacific.
Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the United States in 2018, as seen from the International Space Station.
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will likely be “below normal,” according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with approximately one to three “major hurricanes” brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from early June to late November. During that time, there will be about a 55 percent chance that hurricane season conditions will be “below normal,” a 35 percent chance that conditions will be “near normal” and only a 10 percent chance that conditions will be “above normal,” NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said during a news conference Thursday. That amounts to eight to 14 “named storms” — both tropical storms and hurricanes — including between one and three “major hurricanes,” Jacobs said. These are hurricanes classified as Category 3, 4 or 5, which are storms with sustained winds reaching or exceeding 111 miles per hour.
At Thursday’s news conference, officials repeatedly stressed the importance of preparing for hurricanes, regardless of the forecast. “Don’t let words like ‘below,’ ‘average’ — don’t let all those words change how prepared you are,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. “Even ‘below average’ [years]even if you have two storms, they could be large. We must be ready. In other words, it’s not so much the number of storms that matters but where they hit.
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NOAA Outlook for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The low number of storms expected in the Atlantic is partly explained by the expected return of El Niño, a cyclical weather event that can influence wind patterns across the world. El Niño can add more “vertical wind shear” – a change in wind speed from low to high levels of the atmosphere – in the Atlantic, making it more difficult for hurricanes to form in that area.
The Pacific is another story. There, El Niño tends to reduce vertical wind shear, Jacobs said, making it easier for hurricanes to form. This year, NOAA predicts a 70% chance of “above normal” activity in the central and eastern Pacific, including 15 to 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and between five and nine major hurricanes.
Of course, at the root of all this is climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes and can make them more intense. A 2024 analysis, for example, estimated that climate change was responsible for increasing the wind speeds of all Atlantic hurricanes that season, including pushing Hurricanes Milton and Beryl into Category 5 storms.
The last time NOAA predicted a below-normal season was 2015, NOAA hurricane forecaster Matt Rosencrans said at the same press event.
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