Fears Israel could replicate its ‘Gaza model’ in Lebanon as satellite imagery captures widespread destruction

Bridges were blown up. Houses destroyed. More than a million people displaced. And plans for Israeli control over a vast expanse of territory for an indefinite period.

Fears on Israel’s desire to model its invasion of southern Lebanon after its deadly years-long military offensive in Gaza are increasingly being voiced as satellite images show intensifying destruction in the south of the country – and a growing number of Israeli military bases established in the region.

Aid workers on the ground described a spiraling humanitarian situation with no end in sight after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced this week that his country would establish a “safe zone” in southern Lebanon and take control of major river crossings, leaving hundreds of thousands of people displaced from their homes indefinitely.

Katz compared Israel’s offensive in southern Lebanon to its operations in some of the most devastated areas of the Gaza Strip, including Rafah, a border town that was largely reduced to rubble during Israel’s assault on the enclave that lasted more than two years. He warned that displaced families in the region would not be able to return until the safety of residents of northern Israel from attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah was guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its military action in the south, with the Israel Defense Forces announcing on Thursday that more troops would join its ground invasion into southern Lebanon in a bid to expand its “security zone” there. The Israeli military said the 162nd Division had “begun targeted ground activities against additional targets” alongside the 91st and 36th Divisions.

Growing destruction and death

Satellite images reviewed by NBC News appear to show the reinforcement, before or during the current war, of five Israeli military bases established during previous incursions into southern Lebanon. What appeared to be military tanks could be seen at several sites in recent images.

Meanwhile, at least seven bridges across the Litani River, connecting the south to the rest of the country, appear to have been hit by Israeli forces in the past month, according to satellite images and photos circulating on social media. Katz said the targeted crossing points were used by Hezbollah members to travel between the north and south and to transport weapons.

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Humanitarian groups have also warned of the destruction of entire residential areas, while sounding the alarm over intensifying destruction and rising death tolls in Lebanon. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that “the Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon”, calling on both Hezbollah and Israel to end hostilities. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Guterres’ call.

In Gaza, much of the Palestinian enclave was destroyed by the Israeli offensive that lasted more than two years following the attacks carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, with more than 70,000 people killed and thousands more injured, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Even amid the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, periodic strikes continued, with the death toll continuing to rise.

Israeli forces continue to occupy parts of the Gaza Strip, maintaining a buffer zone that constitutes about half the territory. While President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan calls for an eventual Israeli withdrawal after Hamas disarms, Katz has previously said troops would remain in these so-called safe zones even after the war ends. Much of Gaza’s future is still uncertain, as efforts to rebuild and bring a lasting end to the conflict have been largely delayed due to the focus on the war in Iran.

Israel, which was accused of committing genocide in Gaza by a United Nations commission and faces the allegation in a case before the International Court of Justice, has defended its campaign in the enclave, saying its operations targeted Hamas, despite a heavy civilian toll.

Already, Guterres noted, the Israeli attack has “devastated civilian areas” in southern Lebanon, with more than a million people identifying themselves as internally displaced. More than 1,000 people have been killed, according to data released by the Lebanese government, since fighting resumed between Israel and Hezbollah earlier this month.

‘No safe place’

Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its military action, with the Israeli army announcing on Thursday that it would join its ground attack in southern Lebanon in a bid to expand its “security zone” in the region.

Dr. Tania Baban, country director for Lebanon at MedGlobal, a Chicago-based nonprofit, said families were already repeatedly displaced due to evacuation orders and strikes by the Israeli military.

“What makes this crisis particularly difficult is actually the speed and now unpredictability of strikes occurring outside of areas that we know are at risk,” she said in a voice note from Beirut on Thursday.

“So it’s almost like there’s no safe place – and where have we seen that before?” she said, repeating a phrase often used by Palestinians in Gaza.

Israeli forces launched the assault in Lebanon after Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel in retaliation for its decision to attack Iran, with the US-Israeli operation killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sparking a wider conflict in the region.

Since then, fears of a long-term occupation have grown, amid strong calls from some, including far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for Israel to take permanent control of areas south of the Litani River, citing security advantages.

Israel occupied southern Lebanon until 2000 and has frequently launched attacks in the region in recent decades, taking on Hezbollah, founded in the 1980s when Israel occupied southern Lebanon in response to a series of attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organization. Hezbollah has long supported the destruction of Israel.

The Lebanese government had pledged in 2024 to disarm Hezbollah as part of a U.N.-brokered effort to end fighting between the militant group and Israel, but since then little progress has been made in disarming the Iran-backed group. The Lebanese government decided earlier this month to ban Hezbollah’s military activities.

Humanitarian law

Human rights experts have warned that Israel could violate international law with its offensive in southern Lebanon.

“International humanitarian law protects civilian objects unless they are used for military purposes,” Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told NBC News on Thursday. “There is no indication that Hezbollah is using the many homes Israel is destroying. »

“On the contrary, Israel appears to be continuing its practice in Gaza of clearing large areas of settlements to create a no-man’s land for it to occupy,” he said.

Separately, Human Rights Watch also accused Israel of using white phosphorus munitions on residential areas in southern Lebanon, an accusation the Israeli military has denied. The Israeli military said earlier this month that it possessed smoke shells containing a certain amount of white phosphorus, which is legal under international law.

“It’s very sad and very scary,” Lynn Harfoush, who grew up in Baalbek, a town east of the Litani River in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, and is chief of staff of the Lebanese National Bloc, a secular and reformist political party, said of the terrible reality unfolding in Lebanon.

Harfoush said she feared a long-term Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon — and at the same time, she said she was furious with Hezbollah, a group she said she once supported, for its role in the hostilities.

“This period is one of the rare times when I feel very helpless and very afraid for the future of Lebanon,” she said in a telephone interview on Thursday.

“Today we feel like all of this is going to be taken away from us. »