Key Super Bowl intel through the lens of NFL Next Gen Stats

Let’s go back to early September, when 32 NFL teams were preparing for a race at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, home of Super Bowl LX.

There are just two left, with the Seattle Seahawks scheduled to face the New England Patriots on Sunday for the Lombardi Trophy.

The last time the Seahawks faced the Patriots in a Super Bowl, 11 years ago, Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson to end the game, a play that will go down as one of the most memorable in Super Bowl history.

Most of the players in this game are retired, but the ripple effect remains.

This year’s Seahawks defense is similar to that of the 2014 Super Bowl – the two teams allowing the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season. On the other side of the ball, Seattle relied throughout the playoffs on quarterback Sam Darnold, who whittled down defenses to the tune of a 122 passer rating.

For the Patriots, they are led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye. His regular season success that led to him becoming an MVP finalist didn’t entirely translate to the playoffs – where he had four touchdowns in three games and a 55% completion percentage, and he was also sacked 15 times. In the regular season, Maye threw for 35 total touchdowns while leading the league in completion percentage (72%).

In the playoffs, the Patriots defense more than did its part. They’ve allowed 8.6 points per game in the playoffs – with the Los Angeles Chargers being the closest team after giving up 16 points in their first-round loss to New England.

Here’s a look at some NFL Next Gen stats that could reveal what decides the Super Bowl:

Darnold under pressure

Throughout the playoffs, the Patriots generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, quarterback CJ Stroud completed 2-of-16 passes for 13 yards with an interception under pressure.

In the wild-card round, the Patriots limited Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to three completions on eight attempts with six sacks. In the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos, quarterback Jarrett Stidham completed a 4-yard pass on 10 attempts under pressure.

Darnold, however, avoided turnovers and stayed poised despite 21 stepbacks under pressure over two playoff games. He went 7 of 16 for 117 yards and four touchdowns (five sacks). In the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams, he threw three touchdowns under pressure (5 of 11 for 102 yards).

Sam Darnold completed 5 of 11 passes under pressure for 102 yards and a career-high three touchdowns against the Rams in the NFC Championship.

In Darnold’s first two games against the Rams this season, Darnold threw no touchdowns and three INTs under pressure.

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– Next Generation Statistics (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2026

It’s been a completely different story from the regular season, as Darnold has committed turnovers on a league-high 7.2 percent of his dropbacks under pressure – including six interceptions and five lost fumbles. The Patriots have generated four pressure-induced turnovers in three playoff games after causing three such turnovers during the regular season (third fewest).

But protecting Darnold was effective. Despite facing the second-highest blitz rate this season (35.1%), the Seahawks have only allowed a 29.2% pressure rate (fifth-lowest) and 38 unblocked pressures (seventh-fewest). All of the Seahawks’ starting offensive linemen finished in the top 12 at their position in pressure rate allowed.

Protect Maye

Maye was sacked in five of his 11 pressure losses in the AFC Championship Game, giving him the second-highest sack pressure rate in a game of his career (45.5 percent), trailing only his 62.5 percent rate in the divisional round against the Texans (eight pressures, five sacks).

Maye has been sacked 15 times in the postseason, which is the most of any player to reach a Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. He has been sacked on 48.4 percent of his pressure losses in the postseason, more than double his rate of 20.3 percent during the regular season.

The Seahawks’ defense this season, including the playoffs, according to @NextGenStats:

• 22.3% blitz rate (5th lowest)
• Pressure rate of 38.1% (4th highest)
• 48.2% pressure rate with blitz (3rd highest)
• 35.2% pressure without blitz (5th highest)

Drake Maye passer rating by situation (QB…

– NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 28, 2026

Patriots left tackle Will Campbell has allowed five pressures on 30 pass blocks in the AFC Championship (16.7%) and has now allowed four or more pressures in every game this postseason. Campbell was tasked with tough games, facing both Broncos passer Nik Bonitto (four pressures allowed) and Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (three pressures allowed, two sacks) 14 times each. Bonitto generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (20.2%, minimum 250 pass rushes) while Anderson ranked third (19.5%).

However, it won’t get any easier against Seattle’s defense which is tied for seventh in sacks (47).

JSN’s domination all over the field

Having an answer for the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been difficult for teams this season. The All-Pro receiver led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793); when lined up on the outside, he also led the league with 1,378 yards after leading the league with 956 yards when lined up in the slot last season.

In the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba totaled 153 receiving yards, including 105 receiving yards, and he also caught his first career touchdown when lined up in the backfield. The Patriots will be on alert to try to determine his whereabouts.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a league-leading 1,378 total yards when lined up as an outside receiver this season after pacing the NFL with 956 yards in 2024.

He is the only player in the Next Gen Stats era to ever lead the NFL in both categories.#SEAvsNE | #SuperBowlLX pic.twitter.com/Z4k90wBBl4

– Next Generation Statistics (@NextGenStats) February 3, 2026

Smith-Njigba has lined up on 81.3 percent of snaps this season, but he was in the slot at a season-high 42.1 percent rate in the NFC Championship Game. That could be a factor if Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak decides to have his star receiver avoid All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Key Matchup: Jumbo Pats vs. Seahawks Nickel Staff

The Patriots offense has used giant personnel on 18.4% of its snaps since Week 11 (115 of 624, including playoffs). New England scored a league-high 13 touchdowns during the regular season, averaging 6.1 yards per play (third most). The biggest beneficiary is Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. He rushed for 225 yards and scored four touchdowns on 23 carries in giant sets this season.

Stevenson’s 9.8 yards per jumbo carry was three more yards than any other player in 2025, and the most by any player with at least 20 such carries in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The Patriots rushed for 10 touchdowns as a team, two more than any other offense (Steelers, eight).

What set the Patriots and Seahawks apart was their ability to defend effectively against heavy personnel.

Seattle went nickel on 77.8% of plays against sub-packages (no other team exceeded 60.5%), leading the league in defensive EPA.

New England also ranked in the top 10 in both cases. pic.twitter.com/Fd8r9ylDWJ

– Next Generation Statistics (@NextGenStats) February 4, 2026

The Seahawks rarely faced giant personnel throughout the regular season (26 games, fourth-lowest). But they matched giant looks with nickel personnel on 46.2% of those snaps.

More from Maye

Maye’s downfield passes were among the best this season (10 or more air yards), leading the league with 112 completions while also posting a league-high 61.2% completion percentage. He also threw 19 touchdowns on downfield passes, tied with Darnold and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for the most.

But in the playoffs, Maye is 9 of 26 on passes traveling more than 10 yards (34%). If Maye can’t let him rip, expect him to run – as he recorded the third-most yards from scrimmage this season with 423. He was especially effective when dropping back to run on first downs.

Drake Maye had 65 rushing yards, a career-high six first downs and a rushing touchdown in the AFC Championship against the Broncos.

Maye scored his touchdown and the game-clinching first down on designed runs while scrambling three times for 57 yards.

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– Next Generation Statistics (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2026

On first and second downs, Maye led the NFL with 46 carries, 330 yards and 16 first downs (tied with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes). His 10.7% scrimmage run rate on first downs was actually higher than his 9.1% rate on third down, making him one of 14 qualified quarterbacks to take off and run more often on first and second downs than on third down.