NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Bubble watch, seed lines to monitor this weekend
It’s breakup season in college basketball. Contender or contender status will be achieved this weekend with many titans set to square off in matchups that could significantly change the calculus on Selection Sunday.
Friday’s Michigan-Michigan State rivalry matchup features two teams vying for the top three seeds. Sunday’s battle between Illinois and Nebraska features two teams eyeing a potential No. 1 seed. Oh, and Sunday’s Florida-Alabama game will go a long way toward determining who the crème de la crème of the SEC are, and the chance to secure a top-four finish and wear home uniforms for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s dive into the main scenarios of this weekend, bracketology version.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Can anyone else join the Big 12’s ‘Stellar Six’?
Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Kansas and Texas Tech are going to compete in the Big Dance unless something catastrophic eventually happens. All of the Big 12 titans are looking for a top-five seed. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that ninth-seeded UCF is the only other Big 12 team out of the 68 today. The Knights rolled to an 11-1 non-conference record, but they predictably showed a few more cracks in the armor in Big 12 play, suffering losses to Oklahoma State, Arizona and Iowa State. The next 10 days will be enlightening for UCF’s resume.
Saturday’s home test against Texas Tech is a war. Good luck and best wishes in beating Houston on the road on Wednesday. Oh, and next Sunday there will be a road trip to Cincinnati. Win two of three and UCF on strong ground for an at-large berth. Lose a few and the Big 12 might find that only six of the league’s 16 teams are NCAA tournament caliber.
The top of the Big 12 is the best in America, but getting 38% of its teams in the Big Dance would be the lowest percentage in the league since 2007.
Road warriors?
Road wins are like gold for Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a sophomore metric the NCAA Tournament seeding committee uses to compare resumes to what an average bubble team would make with the same roster. The margin of victory doesn’t matter to WAB, but Or you win is vital. The most impressive win so far, for WAB purposes, this year was Wisconsin going to Ann Arbor and knocking off Michigan. The list of WAB’s most notable victories is littered with neutral site and real road wins.
This raises the stakes for teams currently near the bubble.
Indiana is currently a No. 10 seed, but it can significantly improve its resume if it can beat UCLA on the road on Saturday. Eliminating the Bruins would earn UI +0.70 WAB, which would be equivalent to the rating earned for beating Purdue at home this week.
Ohio State is in a similar situation. The Buckeyes are currently the No. 10 seed. They don’t have much room to run, but a road win against Wisconsin would net OSU about +0.72 WAB. It would be the best win of the season for Jake Diebler’s group and would propel Ohio State about 10 spots higher in the WAB, from 43rd to the top 30. A loss would eliminate Ohio State from the projected tournament picture, according to the CBS Sports algorithm.
Road wins are a balm to escape the falling knife that is the bubble in a jiffy.
Also notable in the at-large bid race will be Texas (at Oklahoma), Kentucky (at Arkansas), SMU (at Louisville) and San Diego State (at Utah State) road games. The Longhorns are among CBS Sports’ top four teams off the field and San Diego State, currently the No. 11 seed, isn’t too far ahead in the top four.
