Stores keep prices down in a tough year for turkeys. Other Thanksgiving foods may cost more

CHELSEA, Mich. — Old Brick Farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys and ducks, has been lucky this Thanksgiving season.

Doll’s small farm, west of Detroit, has had no cases of bird flu, despite an ongoing outbreak that has killed more than 2 million American turkeys in the past three months alone. It also avoided another disease, avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.

“I try to keep the farm as clean as possible, and not bringing in other animals from other farms also helps mitigate that risk,” said Doll, whose farm has been in her family for five generations.

But Doll still saw the impact of these diseases, as these diseases reduced the U.S. turkey flock this year to its lowest level in 40 years. The hatchery where he gets his turkey chicks had fewer available this year. He plans to order 100 more newborns soon, although they won’t arrive until July.

“If you don’t get your order early, you won’t get it,” he said.

The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite this increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential hit to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to make the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased the prices of canned goods.

As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce — cost $58.81, or 4.1 percent more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research company that studies weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That’s higher than the average increase in the price of food eaten at home, which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Datasembly showed a 2% drop in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of November 17. Pricing Thanksgiving meals is not an exact science, and the company’s tally differed from other estimates.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to study prices, said Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost $55.16 this year, 5 percent less than last year. The Wells Fargo Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday with store-brand products would cost $80 this year, 2 to 3 percent less than last year’s estimate.

Grocery store chains also offer deals to attract shoppers. Discount grocer Aldi advertises a $40 meal for 10 people with 21 items. Kroger said shoppers could feed 10 people for less than $50 with its menu of branded products.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that’s because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.

“We see that some promotions are implemented in an effort to attract customers into the store,” said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University.

This is despite a sharp increase in wholesale turkey prices since August. During the second week of November, frozen hens weighing 8 to 16 pounds averaged $1.77 per pound, up 81 percent from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which closely tracks the poultry and livestock markets.

Avian viruses are the main culprits. But another reason for rising wholesale turkey prices is increased consumer demand as other meats have become more expensive, Jordan said. For example, beef prices increased by 14% in September compared to last year.

“A lot of the population looks at cuts of steak and says, ‘I can’t or don’t want to pay $30 a pound,'” Jordan said.

That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes a brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the brisket he buys now will cost more than $100. Turkey prices are also up at his local HEB supermarket, he said, but not as much.

“I don’t know of anything that has gone down in price since last year, except for eggs,” Nadeau said.

Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are also driving up prices. Farok Contractor, distinguished professor of management and international business at Rutgers Business School, said customers pay 10 to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.

Tariffs may be partly to blame for the rising cost of jellied cranberry sauce, which is up 38% from last year according to Datasembly’s survey. But the weather also played a role. U.S. cranberry production is expected to fall 9% this year, affected by drought in Massachusetts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In Illinois, where most of the nation’s canned pumpkins are grown, dry weather has actually helped pumpkins avoid diseases that are more prevalent in humid conditions, said Raghela Scavuzzo, associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and executive director of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce box of pumpkin pie mix costs 5% less than last year.

Back at Old Brick Farm, which has been in her family since 1864, Doll walked among her turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. In a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.

Doll has sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 a pound for what many tell him is the best turkey they’ve ever tasted. He enjoys a small profit, he said, and the good feeling of providing a celebratory meal.

“I love to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but also the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said.

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Associated Press video journalist Mike Householder contributed.