Once the airstrikes stop, Iran’s nuclear threat leaves no easy endgame : NPR
Even after the airstrikes end, the Iranian nuclear threat looms and diplomacy may come too late.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Whenever the United States and Israel stop bombing Iran, they will have to find a solution to the remains of the country’s nuclear program. NPR’s Michele Kelemen reports that it may be even more difficult today to convince Iran to abandon uranium enrichment.
MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appears confident in his ability to handle the 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that Iran is widely believed to possess.
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PETE HEGSETH: We have a whole range of options, until Iran decides to give them up, which, of course, we would welcome. They were not willing to participate in negotiations.
KELEMEN: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS’ “Face The Nation” with Margaret Brennan that they were talking about this before the United States and Israel started bombing his country.
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ABBAS ARAGHCHI: Actually, I suggested that we be prepared to dilute these enriched materials or mix them, as they say, at a lower percentage. So it was, you know, a big offer, a big concession.
KELEMEN: Trump says Iran wants a deal now, although Araghchi denies there are negotiations.
KELSEY DAVENPORT: At the end of this conflict, the risk of Iranian proliferation will remain.
KELEMEN: That’s Kelsey Davenport, who works for the Arms Control Association. She supports nuclear diplomacy with Iran and says the United States and Israel cannot bomb Iranian know-how.
DAVENPORT: It’s a recipe for repeated strikes – a grass-mowing strategy, which the United States has to resort to every few years if there’s a risk, you know, of Iran resuming activities that the United States considers troubling.
KELEMEN: There is a way to break this cycle, says David Albright, author of a book called “Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons.”
DAVID ALBRIGHT: Their strategy and their stated goal should be that Iran agrees to abandon its enrichment program and its nuclear weapons program and accept intrusive verification as part of a ceasefire agreement.
KELEMEN: Albright says he hasn’t heard anything consistent from this administration. The White House told NPR that it would be, quote, “insane” to disclose all potential mechanisms to the Iranian regime, adding that for now, the U.S. military continues to destroy Iran’s dreams of possessing a nuclear weapon. Albright, however, thinks Trump’s top negotiators would benefit from attending one of the nuclear nonproliferation seminars hosted by his think tank, the Institute for Science and International Security.
ALBRIGHT: You know, it would be nice if competent people were negotiating with the Iranians, but I don’t think it would matter.
KELEMEN: Because for years, he says, Iran has insisted on the right to enrichment, and Trump administration officials have called that a red line. Albright agrees with them on this point and says that a change in diet could be an answer to this problem. But Kelsey Davenport says a change in regime doesn’t necessarily change proliferation risks.
DAVENPORT: Even a liberal democracy feeling weak after conflict, feeling threatened by its neighbors, could make the decision to develop nuclear weapons.
KELEMEN: But Albright looks to precedent. A change in leadership in South Africa a few decades ago led to the dismantling of its nuclear weapons program, and Syria’s new leaders are now opening up to the International Atomic Energy Agency. If the Islamic Republic survives this war, he fears it could reconstitute its program.
ALBRIGHT: I don’t think it would happen very quickly. I think he is seriously traumatized by the June War, and this war is only making things worse.
KELEMEN: Albright says there’s another danger. If the regime collapses into chaos, the United States may have to take big risks to safeguard nuclear materials.
Michele Kelemen, NPR News, Department of State.
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