Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today projects college football rankings entering Week 12

On a college football weekend that featured plenty of losses for ranked teams, some of the standout results were close calls that were won by the favorites on a nervy Saturday in Week 11. Indiana and Oregon both faced late deficits but emerged victorious, preserving their top 10 status and adding to what should be a mostly quiet weekly adjustment for AP Top 25 poll voters.

But should this be the case?

Texas A&M also went on the road, but unlike Indiana and Oregon, the Aggies didn’t fall behind. In fact, they never followed up at all. Mike Elko’s group came out of the off week with an 8-0 record and handled business the same way the title contenders did: taking control of the game from the start and never letting go. Every time Missouri found a little spark, the Aggies had an answer, and now as we head into the final stretch of the regular season, it’s worth asking whether Texas A&M is more worthy of consideration for the top spot.

Last week’s voting placed Ohio State as the No. 1 solid team in the AP Top 25 poll with 55 first-place votes and 1,633 voting points. Indiana had the second most first-place votes with 11, but the 1,591 voting points were closer to No. 1 than No. 3, where Texas A&M checked in with just one first-place vote and 1,523 voting points.

The Buckeyes are unlikely to be moved from No. 1, but on a weekend where Indiana at risk of being ousted by interim coachit’s worth asking whether Texas A&M has an argument for moving up in the rankings. At the very least, it seems certain that the Aggies will close the gap with the two teams in the lead and that instead of a debate for No. 1, the voting points will spark a debate for No. 2 heading into Week 12.

Bowl projections: Texas Tech replaces BYU in College Football Playoff bracket, Oregon avoids chaos

Brad Crawford

Further down the rankings, outside of the top 10, we expect a bit of chaos, with Virginia, Louisville and Washington all suffering unexpected losses. Additionally, since this is the first set of AP rankings since the College Football Playoff selection committee released its top 25, we’ll be monitoring the cat-and-mouse game between voters and the committee. The selection committee made some choices — like ranking Pitt and Iowa or putting Texas ahead of Oklahoma — that didn’t resonate with AP voters, and now we’ll see if there’s a reaction.

Here’s what we predict the new AP Top 25 poll will look like on Sunday following the Week 11 college football results:

1. Ohio State (last week – 1): No change at the top of the standings for the Buckeyes, who got a huge day from Jeremiah Smith (10 catches, 137 yards, one touchdown) as the highlight of a 24-point road victory at Purdue. Next up for Ohio State is a two-game homestand against UCLA and Rutgers before the regular-season finale at rival Michigan in Ann Arbor.

2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers may have looked more human with their near upset on the road at Penn State, but the team also looked heroic after the Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman moment with Omar Cooper’s game-winning touchdown, which himself has an argument for catch of the year. A few polls could consider swapping Indiana for Texas A&M, but we anticipate it won’t be enough of a consensus to lead to a change in the rankings.

3. Texas A&M (3): There will be some momentum and a legitimate argument for Texas A&M to be the No. 1 team in the country after a 21-point road win over ranked Missouri. The Aggies are now 9-0 and have a win over Notre Dame to tie them to six SEC wins, strengthening the argument for some progression in the rankings. The problem is moving the No. 1 or No. 2 team after a winning weekend. The Aggies will certainly reduce the voting point deficit, but we predict it won’t be enough for a trade at the top.

4.Alabama (4): No major change in the ranking for Alabama after a less memorable victory against LSU. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 on the year and 6-0 in SEC play, but the road to Atlanta has some tricky spots, including a showdown with Oklahoma next week and the season-ending Iron Bowl at Auburn.

5. Georgia (5): There are some head-to-head results that put Georgia in a pretty specific spot in the rankings, but it’s hard not to see the stock price rise after a 20-point road win at Mississippi State. Kirby Smart’s team caught the Bulldogs upset between playing Florida and Texas, but showed up in Starkville with hammers ready to impose their will.

6. Oregon (6): Beating Iowa in its own game will remain the cornerstone of Oregon’s 2025 campaign, as the Ducks had to rally around a handful of key offensive contributors out of the lineup and find ways to win in the rain at Kinnick Stadium. Escaping Iowa City with a win is a victory that keeps all of Oregon’s overall goals on track, but it won’t shake things up in terms of reshuffling the standings given the results elsewhere.

7. Ole Miss (7): Voters won’t react too much one way or the other after a 49-0 win over The Citadel. Next up for the Rebels is the home finale against Florida next Saturday night, followed by a bye week, then the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28 to close out the regular season.

8. Texas Tech (9): We expect a slight improvement for the Red Raiders after an impressive win against a top 10 opponent, giving BYU its first defeat of the season by a margin of 22 points. The Red Raiders could also be ahead of Ole Miss, but last week’s voting revealed a big enough gap between these two teams to think a trade is in order after two wins.

9. Notre Dame (10): No major changes after Notre Dame fell to Navy. The Fighting Irish have now won seven straight games and continue to show few signs of weakness as pressure mounts each week to win or risk crashing out of the playoffs.

10.Texas (13): The Longhorns were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Georgia. As we mentioned earlier, our projection of an increase is one of the rare times when PA voters could follow the committee’s actions. Texas and Oklahoma were separated by only 15 voting points last week, and with both being 7-2 and the CFP committee giving the Longhorns the edge, we expect PA voters to follow suit.

11. Oklahoma (11): The Sooners were off in Week 11 and will be back in action at Alabama next Saturday.

12. Vanderbilt (15): Trailing by double digits at home, Vanderbilt turned to Diego Pavia to help keep the Commodores’ playoff hopes alive and he delivered. Pavie finished with 377 passing yards, 112 rushing yards and four total touchdowns in the 45-38 overtime win over Auburn to help Vanderbilt improve to 8-2 on the season.

13. Georgia Tech (16): The Yellow Jackets were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Boston College.

14. BYU (8): There’s an easy spot to predict for BYU’s fall after the loss, because while the Cougars were arguably undervalued as an undefeated team outside of the top five, they have a key head-to-head victory against another top 20 team in Utah. It’s possible that respect for Texas Tech and loss of quality leaves BYU at 12th, but for now we expect it to be an easy slide to the slot above the Utes for most voters.

15. Utah (17): The Utes were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Baylor.

16. Miami (18): A slow start against Syracuse seemed to spell the end for a Hurricanes team that needed a spark, and maybe they found it with Carson Beck’s touchdown run. Miami pulled out all the stops late and ultimately won by 28 points to maintain its place in the top 25.

17. USC (20): The Trojans took care of business against Northwestern on Friday night, rallying after a loose start and pulling away for a 38-17 victory. Now at 7-2 with a win over Michigan, the Trojans have a path to more upward movement with games against Iowa and Oregon in the coming weeks.

18. Michigan (21): The Wolverines were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Northwestern.

19. Tennessee (23): The Vols were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against New Mexico State.

20. Cincinnati (25): The Bearcats were off in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Arizona.

21. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave bounced back from a stunning double-digit loss at UTSA with a strong performance beating Memphis on the road. Now 7-2 overall, Tulane has a complex resume with a 2-1 record against Power Conference opponents, one ranked win (at Memphis) and one bad loss. Playing in the U.S. title game, which is the key to making the College Football Playoff, is much more likely after the win over the Tigers. Will PA voters now note this and do a G5 swap on their ballots? It’s certainly possible.

22. James Madison (NR): Look to the College Football Playoff race to find another contender when it comes to potential conference champions, as JMU is now 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference after a 12-point road win over Marshall. If the Dukes win and claim the Sun Belt title, they will be a 12-1 team with the only loss coming at Louisville. What remains are the home dates against App State and Washington State that followed the regular season finale at Coastal Carolina.

23. Pittsburgh (NR): The Panthers were off in Week 11, but finished 28th in last week’s voting and entered the College Football Playoff rankings as one of the top 25 teams in the country, according to the selection committee. That could draw a spotlight that wouldn’t otherwise be on Pitt during a bye week, and when looking for two-loss teams to consider, the Panthers have a strong argument.

24. Houston (NR): The Cougars were just inside the top 25 two weeks ago before a blowout loss to West Virginia. So it won’t be hard to see voters picking a team when looking for options in the 20s. Houston doesn’t have many great wins, it’s 8-2 after winning in Week 11 at UCF and one of those losses came to a Texas Tech team that will move up on the voters’ ballot.

25. San Diego State (NR): The Aztecs are currently in action in Hawaii.

Planned to give up: n°12 Virginia, n°14 Louisville, n°19 Missouri, n°22 Memphis, n°24 Washington