In February, mortgage rates slipped below 6 percent for the first time in three years, before the spiraling conflict in the Middle East rattled the global economy.
Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield as well as concerns about inflation. Last week, the yield on a 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.39 percent, its highest rate since July. Trump’s recent contradicting statements about a potential ceasefire in Iran have only driven yields higher to 4.44 percent on Monday, threatening home sales as spring arrives. Concerns about rising inflation have only deepened as the Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered. At the same time, foreclosure rates are also increasing in another troubling sign for homeowners.
Meanwhile, financial services firm Goldman Sachs has estimated that the global oil shock will cost the United States an estimated additional 10,000 jobs per month until the end of the year—and that’s if the war ends after six weeks. As energy prices surge, consumers are expected to cut back on discretionary purchases, like travel, hospitality, and retail, and put off long-term purchases like buying a house. Currently, there aren’t many signs that the war will resolve anytime soon. This prediction comes after the U.S. gained practically no jobs in 2025, and data from February revealed a shocking spike in unemployment.
