Trump and his party confront the political perils of chaos: From the Politics Desk

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In today’s edition, Jonathan Allen takes stock of the political risk the Iran war presents for President Donald Trump and the GOP heading into the midterms. Plus, Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar share their findings from focus groups of Democratic voters in two states with critical Senate races.

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— Adam Wollner

Trump and his party confront the political perils of chaos

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

Even if the Iran war comes to a close soon, it will take a while to precisely assess what the U.S. gained and lost from President Donald Trump’s decision to unload on the regime in Tehran.

While Iran’s military capabilities are obviously degraded, 13 American service members have been killed and more injured. And there are open questions about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and how much American taxpayers will end up spending on the war itself and, possibly, the reconstruction of Iran.

But it may be easier to take stock of the domestic political costs and benefits now.

The president’s decision to go to war without laying the groundwork with the American people, Congress and U.S. allies has left him and his administration scrambling to explain it to his own MAGA base, calm volatile markets and conduct on-the-fly diplomacy with decidedly mixed results.

The American public hasn’t bought what he’s selling — at least not yet.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans aren’t confident in Trump’s handling of Iran policy, according to Pew Research polling released this week, and most are not pleased with the dollar-plus-per-gallon increase in gas prices. MAGA influencers and Republicans in Congress have been more willing to criticize Trump over the war — and many of them have turned on one another.

Poll numbers are a snapshot, and intraparty coalitions can be rebuilt. But with the midterm elections looming, the Iran war has brought into sharper focus the political perils of chaos.

When Trump lost the presidency in 2020, he did so in the shadow of a pandemic and civil unrest that undermined the sense that he was in control of events and of himself. Recall that he was diagnosed with Covid shortly before the election. His opponent campaigned on restoring a sense of calm leadership, and the contrast appeared to be a key element of Joe Biden’s success.

Between now and November, Democrats will argue in part that it’s time to apply the brakes to the Trump Train. Republicans will be left to make the case that either voters should hit the accelerator or simply let the train keep moving at its current speed.

Trump’s justification for the Iran war is that Tehran represented a threat to the U.S. But there’s scant evidence that voters believed that to be true — especially after he told them last summer’s strikes had neutralized Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Instead of making Americans feel more secure, many have felt less secure. Of course, there’s the pain at the gas pump — and from rising prices on goods that are reliant on fuel-based transportation. Many Americans also fear the threat of retaliatory acts of terrorism. And they all know that a big bill, in the hundreds of billions of dollars, will be added to the national debt.

The question for Trump is not whether he can portray the end result in Iran as a military victory, but whether he can convince voters that it was worth the costs and the chaos.

More on the Iran war:

Trump ‘optimistic’ about Iran peace deal even as ceasefire appears strained, by Peter Nicholas, Daniel Arkin, Katherine Doyle and Monica Alba

Israel’s attacks devastate Beirut and threaten U.S.-Iran ceasefire, by Zoya Awky and Chantal Da Silva

Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic is effectively at a standstill, by Mithil Aggarwal

Republicans block effort to halt Trump’s war with Iran after ‘civilization’ threat, by Scott Wong, Kyle Stewart and Frank Thorp V

For subscribers: After five weeks of the Iran war, is the U.S. better off?

The U.S. military says it succeeded in decimating the Iranian navy, sinking more than 90% of its regular fleet, and most analysts agree that the country’s already limited navy had been crippled for years. But for Trump’s other objectives, Dan De Luce and Justin Goldman write, the scorecard appears incomplete. Read more →

Focus groups: Dissatisfied Democratic voters hunt for winners to pull the party forward

By Bridget Bowman and Ben Kamisar

Some Democratic voters may be down on their party, but they’re still heavily engaged in the 2026 elections and are prioritizing electability when thinking about upcoming primaries, according to focus group conversations in Maine and Michigan.

Both states will be central in this year’s battle for the Senate, and the Democratic primaries there have exposed ideological and generational divides within the party. But above all else, these voters want to win.

All 13 focus group participants, seven from Maine and six from Michigan, said they are likely to vote in upcoming primaries and said they preferred a Democratic candidate who can beat a Republican in November over a candidate who would vehemently fight President Donald Trump.

“I think the only way we’re going to get Trump under control is through the midterm elections,” said Jennifer R., 61, who is reluctantly backing oyster farmer Graham Platner over Gov. Janet Mills in the Maine Democratic Senate primary, because she believes Platner can defeat longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins.

The focus groups, conducted Tuesday, included 10 self-described progressives and three moderates. The discussions were produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago and observed by NBC News.

These Democrats were very dissatisfied with their party broadly, describing it as “weak,” “spineless,” “floundering,” “ineffective” and “distracted.” The negative views reflect their party’s historically low favorability ratings in recent polls.

“Have a plan,” Julie S., a 54-year-old Mainer, advised Democrats. “Whether it’s for health care, whatever else, but have a plan of what your platform is other than anti-Trump.”

A successful November election for Democrats runs through both the Maine and Michigan Senate races, as the party tries to net four seats and flip the majority. These voters viewed these races as the next chance to blunt Trump’s power.

“These likely Democratic primary voters realize they can thwart President Trump in 2027 only if they win elections this November, so electability is a key factor as they approach their primaries,” said Rich Thau of Engagious, who moderated the sessions.

Read more from the focus groups →

🛣️ More from the campaign trail: Two Democrats running for Senate in Iowa tussled over the influence of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and super PACs during a forum organized by progressive groups, Henry J. Gomez reports from Des Moines.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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