Trump heads weakened into a season of tough political challenges

President Trump approached his State of the Union address Tuesday night by projecting confidence in his personal power to “make America great again,” despite the misfortunes he says he suffered at the hands of his Democratic predecessors.

He was also in a particularly precarious position — facing some of the lowest approval ratings on record, plummeting support on his signature issue of immigration, relentless pressure from the slow rollout of the Epstein files, a sluggish economy, growing international tensions and a looming midterm election in which Democrats appear poised to make gains, perhaps even regain control of Congress.

Trump remains popular among his base and remarkably infallible in the eyes of his loyalist administration and still commands extraordinary deference from many of his party’s leaders. Many of his supporters share his confidence and suggest that polls showing declining support are false.

“This is what America First looks like,” said Paul Dans, former head of the conservative Project 2025, which Trump has largely embraced. “Last year was phenomenal. He accomplished more in one year than most presidents would accomplish in an entire term.”

Still, political observers see a landscape of vulnerabilities for the president in his second term as the 2026 elections approach.

“He’s at a point where his political capital is rapidly declining,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant in California. “From a historical perspective, a president in his sixth year, heading into what appears to be a difficult midterm, is unlikely to rise higher again, in terms of political fairness – so he is probably past his prime.”

Trump is in “about as weak a position” as any president heading into a State of the Union address recently, agreed Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic strategist and director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future at USC. “I don’t think the country sees Trump as the solution to anything at this point.”

But at the same time, Trump is not acting like other weakened presidents, Shrum noted.

Instead of taking stock and turning away from unpopular policies, including on immigration and the economy, he is signaling that he simply won’t accept major midterm losses for his party — which leaves the nation in “completely uncharted waters,” Shrum said.

“We have a president who, by all traditional standards, has been seriously weakened, but who acts as if he has maximum strength,” he said. “We have a president who is deeply unpopular, who is expected to see his party very poorly in the midterms, but who seems determined to interfere in the midterm elections by any means possible. »

In the polls

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Sunday shows 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 39% say they approve. The last time Trump performed this poorly in this poll was shortly after the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

A CNN poll by SSRS released Monday found Trump’s job approval rating at 36 percent, with a 19-point drop among Latinos over the past year, an 18-point drop among Americans under 45 and a 15-point drop to just 26 percent among political independents — the lowest ever during either of his terms.

Shrum said such drops in support among Latino and independent voters don’t bode well for Trump or other Republicans on the November ballot — especially since the president, who often dismisses polls that don’t favor him, doesn’t appear inclined to change his policies.

Dans, who is running for South Carolina Senate against incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, dismissed Trump’s declining poll numbers as “fake or contrived,” and said the president should instead “go all-in on Trump” — doubling down on his agenda.

On immigration

Trump has done numerous polls on immigration in the past. But his heavy-handed crackdown — with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other federal agents arresting people without criminal records, arresting U.S. citizens and legal immigrants, and killing U.S. citizens in Minneapolis — has been a game-changer. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that 58% of adults disapprove of his handling of immigration.

Stutzman said Trump and his team clearly realize their approach has offended voters, which is why they recently reshuffled the leadership team in Minneapolis. But the broader policy remained in place and “the numbers continue to collapse,” he said.

Shrum said that if Trump “intended to improve his situation, he would change the way ICE behaves, and might put different faces on the efforts that it’s doing, and might focus on people who are actually convicted criminals,” but instead he and other administration officials “seem determined to move forward.”

Dans said Trump was given “a clear mandate in 2024 on mass migration, and that was to reverse and end that flow,” and that’s what he’s doing. “Everyone goes home. »

On Epstein

Trump has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing involving the late disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a former acquaintance. However, questions about Epstein’s ties to Trump and other powerful men persist as evidence from multiple investigations into Epstein’s abuse continues to be released.

Congressional Republicans broke with the president and joined with Democrats to pass a bill last year requiring the release of the documents. Justice Department officials slowed the release by redacting and withholding records, further delaying it.

The documents contained unproven accusations of wrongdoing by Trump, which he denied. Both Democrats and Republicans argued that more records should be released.

On the economy

Trump was dealt a major blow last week when the U.S. Supreme Court blocked a series of tariffs he had imposed on his international trading partners.

Trump has said his administration would use other legal authorities to impose similar or even stricter tariffs, despite polls showing his tariffs are unpopular.

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, conducted before the court’s ruling, found that 57% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy and 64% disapproved of his handling of tariffs.

Dans said Trump has already tempered inflation and “the economy is ready to take off like a rocket,” especially if Congress gives the president the space to continue implementing policies aimed at returning jobs to the United States that had long gone overseas.

“We are really focused on reindustrialization,” Dans said. “It’s not going to happen overnight, but all the building blocks are in place.”

Looking to the future

Stutzman said there is already evidence that Trump “doesn’t really have the sway over Congress” like he used to, given recent votes on the Epstein cases and tariffs, and that the conservative-leaning Supreme Court is still ready to rule against him, as it did on his tariffs.

If Democrats regain control in the midterms, Trump will see his influence diminish further as “the next two years turn into a quagmire,” with Democrats thwarting his agenda and launching one investigation after another, Stutzman said.

Dans said those obstructing Trump, including in Congress, must step down because they are “trampling” the will of the electorate. “It’s always about what people want, and that’s what he’s going to give them.”

Shrum said Trump trying to avoid losing power by interfering with voting, including through the processing of mail-in ballots, is a major concern, as is Trump entering armed conflict overseas in a “Wag the Dog” move — a reference to a 1997 film of the same name in which an unpopular president uses a foreign war to save an election.

However, Shrum said he doesn’t think the latter solution would actually benefit Trump — “I don’t think at this point another foreign incursion would make a president more popular” — and that, interference or not, a Republican drubbing in November is likely.

Trump, then, will “just try to rule by decree,” will be sued and have his agenda mired in court battles for the rest of his presidency, Shrum said — a product, in part, of his confident, despite all indications, “my way or the highway” approach to governing.